In a new report sent to Rigzone on Monday, Macquarie strategists revealed that they expect US crude inventories to fall by 3.0 million barrels in the week ending September 29.
“This follows a 2.2 million barrel draw for the week ended Sept. 22, with total U.S. crude stocks realizing significantly looser than we anticipated, more than offsetting tighter balances than expected in the previous two weeks,” strategists said in the report.
“Starting this week, from refineries, we model another reduction in crude runs (-0.4MBD). Among net imports, we expect a large reduction week-over-week, with exports significantly higher in terms of nominals (+0.6MBD) and much lower imports (-1.0MBD),” Macquarie strategists added.
“Based on implied domestic supply (prod. + adj.), we look for a rebound (+1.1 MBD) after last week’s soft print,” the strategists continued.
In the report, strategists noted that they are not modeling any change in Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory for the week, “given uncertainty about precise inventory movements from Energy Information Administration data (EIA)/Department of Energy (DOE) that vary recently.”
Macquarie strategists also stated in the report that at Cushing, their refinery/pipeline model calls for 0.2 million barrels of construction this week.
“Among products, we look for builds in gasoline (+1.0 million barrels) and jet (+1.0 million barrels), with good inflows from distillates (-2.7 million barrels) amid an expected seasonal increase in demand,” strategists said in the report.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.3MBD compared to last week’s 14.2MBD and a trailing four-week average of 14.2MBD,” they added.
In its latest weekly report on the state of oil, which was released on September 27 and showed data for the week ending September 22, the EIA revealed that U.S. crude oil commercial inventories , excluding those from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, decreased by 2.2 million barrels compared to the week. which ends September 15th until the week ending September 22nd.
The country’s crude oil stocks, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, stood at 416.3 million barrels on September 22, 418.5 million barrels on September 15 and 430.6 million barrels on September 23. September 2022, the EIA report revealed.
Total crude in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve was 351.0 million barrels on September 22, 351.2 million barrels on September 15 and 422.6 million barrels on September 23, 2022, according to this report.
The EIA report also noted that total U.S. inventories (including crude oil, motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene-type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils) stood at 1.618 million barrels on September 22. That was down 1.7 million barrels from the previous week, the report said.
In a report sent to Rigzone on September 25, Macquarie strategists revealed that they were forecasting that US crude inventories fell by 6.5 million barrels for the week ending September 22.
“This follows a draw of 2.1 million barrels for the week ended September 15, with the total US crude backlog again being slightly tighter than we had anticipated,” strategists said in this report.
In that report, strategists also forecast a “small increase in Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory for the week (+0.3 million barrels).”
The EIA’s next weekly state of oil report is scheduled for release on October 4 and will show data for the week ending September 29.
The report notes that it provides timely information on the supply and prices of selected crude oil and major petroleum products. The report’s geographic coverage includes all 50 states and the District of Columbia, the report added, noting that US territories are treated as import sources but are otherwise excluded from the weekly statistics of oil supply.
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