$87.91 per barrel.
That was the average response of executives at 146 oil and gas companies when asked where they expected the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to be by the end of the year, as part of the latest survey by ‘energy from the Dallas Fed, which was published. this week.
The low forecast was $70 per barrel, the high forecast was $120 per barrel and the WTI price during the survey was $90.29 per barrel, the survey noted.
In the Dallas Fed’s third-quarter Energy Survey, about 27 percent of respondents expected the WTI price to be between $85 and $89.99 a barrel by the end of the year, and more than 25 percent of respondents expected it to be between $90 and $94.99 per barrel. .
In the Dallas Fed Energy second quarter survey, the average response to the same question was $77.48 per barrel. The low forecast in this survey was $60 per barrel, the high forecast was $100 per barrel and the price during the survey was $69.89 per barrel, according to the survey, which noted that executives of 151 oil and gas companies answered the question.
The average response in the first-quarter survey, which saw executives from 145 oil and gas companies answer the question, was $79.64 a barrel. The low forecast in the first quarter survey was $50 per barrel, the high forecast was $160 per barrel and the price during the survey was $68.51 per barrel, the survey noted energy from the Dallas Fed in the first quarter.
According to its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which was released earlier this month, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the WTI spot price to average 87.68 dollars per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year and $79.65 per barrel for all of 2023.
In its previous STEO, which was released in August, the EIA projected the average WTI spot price to be $82.65 per barrel in the fourth quarter and $77.79 per barrel in all of 2023. Both STEOs place the 2022 WTI spot price average at $94.91. per barrel
In a report sent to Rigzone this week, Standard Chartered projected that the NYMEX WTI price would average $91 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year and $88 per barrel for 2023 overall. The company anticipated exactly the same prices for NYMEX WTI in a separate report sent to Rigzone in late August.
In another report sent to Rigzone this week, BofA Global Research revealed that its commodities team raised its average WTI assumption for the second half of 2023 from $76 per barrel to $86 per barrel.
At the time of writing, the price of WTI crude is trading at $91.70 a barrel. The commodity has risen since closing at $67.7 a barrel on June 27.
Dallas Fed survey
The Dallas Fed conducts the Dallas Fed Energy Survey quarterly to obtain a timely assessment of energy activity among oil and gas companies located or headquartered in the Eleventh District, the organization notes in its web site
Oil and gas sector activity increased in the third quarter, according to oil and gas executives who responded to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey, the Dallas Fed noted in the latest report .
“The business activity index, the broadest measure of conditions facing energy companies in the Eleventh District, rose from 0 in the second quarter to 10.9 in the third quarter,” noted the Dallas Fed in survey.
“The increase was driven by the exploration and production (E&P) side of the business. The business activity index for exploration and production companies rose from 1.0 in the second quarter to 22.5 in third quarter. However, the business activity index for oil and gas support services companies declined from -1.9 to -12.2,” the organization added.
The Dallas Fed revealed in the survey that the oil production index rose from 8.0 in the second quarter to 26.5 in the third, and that the natural gas production index rose from 2 .1 to 15.4. Businesses also reported rising costs for an 11th straight quarter, according to the Dallas Fed.
“Among oilfield services companies, the input cost index remained positive, but decreased from 41.2 to 33.4. Among exploration and production companies, the input cost index research and development increased from 14.9 to 18.3. In addition, the lease operating expense index was essentially unchanged at 25.6,” the Dallas Fed said in the survey.
“Oilfield services companies reported continued deterioration in most indicators. The equipment utilization index remained negative, but rose from -7.9 in the second quarter to -4.2 in the third. The operating margin index fell from -21.6 to -30.7. The price index for services was relatively unchanged at 2.1,” he added.
In the latest survey, the Dallas Fed also noted that the aggregate employment index posted an eleventh consecutive positive reading, but declined from 13.1 in the second quarter to 5.5 in the third.
“Although the aggregate employment index was positive, the single-digit reading indicates that employment was little changed from the previous quarter,” the organization said in the survey.
“The total employee hours index remained relatively unchanged at 9.6. Meanwhile, the aggregate wages and benefits index fell from 34.5 to 24.5,” it added.
The Dallas Fed also noted in the survey that the business outlook index moved into positive territory in the third quarter, “moving from -9.1 to 36.0.”
“Optimism was more pronounced among E&P companies; the outlook index was 46.8 for exploration and production companies compared to 14.9 for service companies,” the organization noted in the survey.
“The General Outlook Uncertainty Index remained positive but fell 30 points to 6.8, suggesting that while uncertainty continued to rise across the board, fewer companies saw an increase in last quarter,” he added.
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