In a new report sent to Rigzone late Monday, Macquarie strategists revealed they are forecasting U.S. crude inventories fell 6.5 million barrels for the week ending Sept. 22.
“This follows a 2.1 million barrel draw for the week ended September 15, with the total US crude stock again realizing a bit tighter than we had anticipated,” they said the strategists in the report.
“For this week, from the refineries, we are looking for another step down in crude oil runs (-0.2 MBD). We model a slight increase in net imports, with exports slightly lower in nominal terms (-0.3MBD) and imports also down (-0.2MBD),” the strategists added.
“Export timing remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s statistics. Based on implied domestic supply (prod. + adj.), we look for a sharp reduction (-1.0 MBD) after the strong impression from last week. To complete the picture, we forecast a small increase in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory during the week (+0.3 million barrels),” they stated.
In the report, strategists also noted that at Cushing, their refinery/pipeline model calls for a draw of 0.7 million barrels this week.
“Among products, we look for modest gains in gasoline (-0.9 million barrels) and distillates (-0.4 million barrels), with slightly higher jet stocks (+0.1 million barrels)” , strategists said.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.1 MBD compared to last week’s 14.2 MBD and a trailing four-week average of 14.3 MBD,” the strategists continued.
In a report sent to Rigzone last week, Macquarie strategists projected that US crude inventories would fall by 0.7 million barrels in the week ending September 15. In that report, strategists also forecast a “modestly larger increase in Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory for the week.” (+0.6 million barrels)”.
U.S. commercial crude inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell by 2.1 million barrels from the week ended Sept. 8 to the week ended Sept. 15, according to the latest weekly report on the state of oil from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Crude in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve reached 351.2 million barrels on Sept. 15 and 350.6 million barrels on Sept. 8, the latest EIA report showed.
The EIA’s next weekly state of oil report is scheduled for release on Wednesday. The report claims to provide timely information on the supply and prices of selected crude oil and major petroleum products and to provide the industry, press, planners, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and state and local governments with a source reliable and prepared with current information. information
According to data available on the EIA site, the highest weekly figure for US crude oil ending stocks, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, was seen on June 19, 2020, at 540.722 million barrels. The lowest weekly figure for U.S. crude stockpiles, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, was seen on Jan. 23, 2004, at 247.323 million barrels, the data showed.
The EIA site also noted that the highest weekly figure for crude stocks in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve was seen on January 1, 2010, at 726.617 million barrels, and that the weekly figure The lowest level of US crude oil stocks SPR was seen on August 20, 1982. , at 270.455 million barrels.
EIA site data for weekly US crude ending stocks and weekly US SPR crude stocks ranged from August 1982 to September 2023.
Macquarie is a global financial services group operating in 34 markets in asset management, retail and corporate banking, wealth management, asset leasing and financing, market access, commodity trading, renewable energy development, specialist advice, capital raising and principal investment, company website. states
To contact the author, please send an email andreas.exarcheas@rigzone.com
