How much crude will the US produce this year and next?
Well, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which was released last week, U.S. crude oil production will average 12.78 million barrels per day in 2023 and 13.16 million barrels per day in 2024.
Broken down quarterly, the EIA expects U.S. crude production to be 12.86 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 12.94 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 13.03 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 13.09 million barrels per day. in the second quarter of 2024, 13.15 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 13.36 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
That production averaged 12.63 million barrels per day in the first quarter and 12.71 million barrels per day in the second quarter, the September STEO noted.
According to the STEO, in 2023 the lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, will produce 10.51 million barrels per day, the Federal Gulf of Mexico will produce 1.85 million barrels per day, and Alaska will produce 0, 43 million barrels per day. By 2024, the Lower 48 will produce 10.85 million barrels per day, the Federal Gulf of Mexico will produce 1.90 million barrels per day and Alaska will produce 0.41 million barrels per day, the STEO showed.
Production down 48 bpd is forecast at 10.59 million bpd in Q3, 10.60 million bpd in Q4, 10.66 million bpd in Q1 2024 , 10.75 million barrels per day in the second quarter of next year, 10.90 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 11.06 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, the report revealed.
This production averaged 10.31 million barrels per day in the first quarter and 10.52 million barrels per day in the second quarter, the STEO has highlighted.
In its previous STEO, which was released in August, the EIA projected that US crude production would reach 12.76 million barrels per day in 2023 and 13.09 million barrels per day in 2024 .Production of 48 was expected to be less than 10.52 million barrels per day in 2023 and 10.81 million barrels per day in 2024, Federal Gulf of Mexico production was expected to average 1.81 million barrels per day this year and 1.87 million barrels for next year, and Alaska production was expected to average 0.43 million barrels per day. in 2023 and 0.41 million barrels per day in 2024.
“We forecast global liquid fuels production to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2023 despite recent voluntary OPEC+ production cuts,” the EIA noted in its September STEO.
“World production is forecast to rise by 1.7 million barrels per day in 2024. Non-OPEC production is the main driver of global production growth in our forecasts, rising by 2.0 million barrels per day in 2023 and 1.3 million barrels per day in 2024, led by the United States, Brazil, Canada and Guyana,” the EIA added.
“We expect Russian production to decline by an average of 0.3 million barrels per day this year and remain relatively unchanged in 2024. We forecast OPEC crude output to fall by 0.8 million barrels per day in 2023 and will increase by 0.4 million barrels per day in 2023. 2024,” the EIA continued.
According to figures available on the EIA website, which span from the 1850s to 2022 and were last updated in August 2023, annual U.S. crude oil production has not been never more than 13 million barrels per day.
The highest production figure shown in the data came in 2019, when U.S. crude production was revealed to average 12.311 million barrels per day. That production was 11.911 million barrels per day in 2022, 11.268 million barrels per day in 2021 and 11.318 million barrels per day in 2020, according to the data.
According to the Energy Institute’s (EI) first and 72nd annual statistical review of world energy, U.S. crude oil and condensate production was 11.887 million barrels per day last year.
This figure represented a 5.6% year-on-year increase in production and 14.6% of global crude oil and condensate output in 2022, which was the highest of any nation last year, the EI review.
Russia ranked second with 10.669 million barrels, which was up 2% year-on-year and 13.1% of the global total, and Saudi Arabia ranked third with 10.509 million barrels per day, which it represented a year-on-year increase of 11.9% and 12.9%. percent of the global total, the EI review showed.
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