Dated Brent is very likely to move above $100 per barrel.
That’s what Bjarne Schieldrop, SEB’s chief commodity analyst, said in a new report, which was sent to Rigzone on Monday.
“It’s now less than $5 a barrel from that level and all it takes is noise to push it higher,” Schieldrop said in the report.
“Tupis crude in Asia traded at $101.3 a barrel last week, so some crude benchmarks are already above $100 a barrel,” he added.
In the report, the SEB analyst noted that while Datad Brent looks set to hit $100 per barrel “before long,” SEB analysts are skeptical “of further price hikes to $110-120 per barrel, as demand for oil products probably increasingly. would start to hurt”.
“Unless, of course, we have some serious supply disruptions. But Saudi Arabia now has several million barrels per day of spare capacity, as it only produces 9.0 million barrels per day today, so so disruptions can be countered,” he added.
Schieldrop highlighted in the report that oil product demand, oil product cracks and oil product inventories are good things to watch going forward.
“An oil price of $85-$95 a barrel is probably much better than $110-$120 a barrel for a world where economic activity is likely to slow rather than pick up after the big hikes in interest rates over the past 12-18 months,” Schieldrop said. .
The SEB analyst noted in the report that crude oil prices have been on a “relentless rise” since late June “when it became clear that Saudi Arabia would keep its production at 9.0 million barrels not only in July but also in August, and subsequently extended to September and then most recently at the end of the year”.
In a statement sent to Rigzone last week, Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) said it has maintained that Brent prices will reach $100 a barrel later this year “for several months.”
“Fundamental data released ahead of our August 31 deadline has been mixed, but we are reiterating our call for Brent prices to reach $100 a barrel later this year,” said Al Salazar, Senior Vice President of EIR. the statement
In the statement, EIR said its price call depends on three conditions.
“1/ Improving global economic sentiment, 2/ OPEC adherence to announced cuts, and 3/ Consistent provisions for crude oil and OECD products at 1.0 million barrels per day or more,” noted the company
In a report sent to Rigzone last week, Standard Chartered analysts projected that Brent would average $93 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year.
“However, we caution that our forecast is a period average rather than a point forecast and therefore does not rule out an intra-Q4 peak above $100 per barrel,” analysts said in the report
In this report, analysts at Standard Chartered said that “the rally in crude oil prices has continued over the past week, with Brent crude marking a series of new year highs so far, with the latest at of writing $92.38 per barrel.”
“We believe there is significant near-term upside, with the effects of the large supply shortfall in the third quarter to be compounded by larger inventory draws in the fourth quarter,” they added.
“In our view, the deficits are so large that they raise the strong possibility that OPEC could recover a significant portion of production in the fourth quarter, keeping prices comfortably above $90 a barrel,” the analysts continued .
In another report sent to Rigzone last week, analysts at BofA Global Research said Brent prices could top $100 a barrel before the end of the year “if OPEC+ maintains cuts against the positive backdrop of Asian demand”.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released in September, projected Brent spot prices to average $84.46 a barrel this year. In its previous STEO, which was released in August, the EIA predicted that Brent spot prices would reach $82.62 a barrel in 2023.
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