The Atlantic saw a flurry of hurricane activity in late August, Standard Charted analysts said in a report sent to Rigzone earlier this week.
“Four tropical storms formed in a 39-hour period from August 20-22, followed by two other systems in the last week of the month (including Hurricane Idalia, which peaked at Category Four) ,” the analysts said in the report.
“September is the climatological peak of the normal hurricane season, but the forecast is calm at the moment. One feature worth monitoring right now is a disturbance in the central tropical Atlantic that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has assigned a 100 percent chance of cyclone formation within 48 hours,” they added.
“The system could further strengthen into a hurricane (likely to be named Hurricane Lee) later in the week as it is forecast to move across the western parts of the tropical Atlantic toward the Leeward Islands,” they continued the analysts
At the time of this writing, the NHC is tracking a hurricane named Lee in the Atlantic. As of 5 a.m. AST, this hurricane had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph and a west-northwest motion of 13 mph, the NHC site showed.
“Lee is expected to become a major hurricane early Friday, with its core moving north of the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week” , the NHC noted in an advisory posted on its site at 5 a.m. AST.
“There is a potential for tropical storm conditions to develop over some of these islands over the weekend, and interests there should monitor future updates to Lee’s forecast,” the advisory added.
“Waves generated by Lee are expected to reach parts of the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and the British and US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas and Bermuda this weekend. These storm surges are likely to cause life-threatening surf and break current conditions,” the warning said.
In addition to Hurricane Lee, the NHC is tracking two other unnamed disturbances in the Atlantic at the time of this writing. One of them is located in the eastern tropical Atlantic and has a 60 percent chance of cyclone formation within 48 hours and the other is located in the northeast Atlantic and has a 20 percent chance of formation of cyclones in 48 hours, depending on the location.
A statement posted on the NHC website at 7:45 a.m. EDT on Aug. 30 noted that “Extremely Dangerous Category 3 Hurricane Idalia” had made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend.
In a report published on its website the same day, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that Hurricane Idalia was affecting production facilities and pipelines on the US Gulf Coast.
Also on August 30, in a statement posted on its website, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced that EPA Administrator Michael Regan issued a fuel exemption d emergency “to address a fuel supply emergency in Florida caused by Hurricane Idalia.”
The hurricane too affected some Chevron and Kinder Morgan operations and removed the power for hundreds of thousands of customers in Florida.
In a statement sent to Rigzone on August 31, the American Red Cross noted that it prepositioned more than 400 disaster responders and truckloads of supplies to support communities affected by Hurricane Idalia.
Atlantic weather systems have severely affected oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico in the past. For example, at its peak, Hurricane Ida shut down 95.65 percent of Gulf of Mexico oil production on Aug. 29, 2021, and 94.47 percent of Gulf of Mexico gas production on Aug. 31, 2021, BSEE figures show.
In a statement sent to Rigzone last month, Marvin Ma, vice president of Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) and author of a new company report assessing the impact of Atlantic hurricanes on Gulf of Mexico production of the US, said: “Should a hurricane disrupt oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico, EIR’s medium impact case estimates that 40 percent of total Gulf of Mexico production would be shut down and it would take seven days to recover.”
“A high-impact case estimates 90 percent closure and 16 days to recover,” Ma added in the statement.
To contact the author, please send an email andreas.exarcheas@rigzone.com
