There is “solid” oil growth in 2023 in public guidance for US producers, Macquarie strategists noted in a new report recently sent to Rigzone.
“Among a sample of 42 U.S. onshore public producers representing ~4.8 million bpd net in Q4 2022, we see guidance pointing to aggregate output/output oil growth of nearly 290,000 bpd day (~six percent),” strategists noted. in the report.
“While we have made efforts to adjust for M&A/A&D activity in this analysis (injecting an additional layer of estimation/uncertainty), growth from the private side may still be seeping into these numbers, as a cost private. with increased production are purchased by public peers,” the strategists added.
“Furthermore, as we believe Q4 2022 US oil supply was significantly impacted by the freezes, we note that these numbers may overstate underlying growth. However, among this sample we see some potential of growth lasting into the second half of 2023 and potentially more pronounced in the fourth quarter,” they continued.
“From a high level, we see guidance as a whole consistent with a strong picture of public company completions through the third quarter,” the strategists said in the report.
In a separate report sent to Rigzone earlier this month, Macquarie strategists said completion schedules for public oil basin producers looked strong through the third quarter of 2023.
Highlighting their analysis of 25 public producers in the report, the strategists said, “while the quality/granularity of completion disclosures varies widely by producer and considerable M&A activity (which we have done a effort to adjust) further complicates the picture, our analysis points to a Q2 peak, followed by a small sequential decline in Q3, with Q4 levels roughly in line with Q1.”
“Even though it’s private. Activity may turn softer in 2H 2023, other indicators of stagnant oil activity appear more resilient than high-level rig counts may suggest,” the strategists added in this report.
In a note sent to Rigzone last week, Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) highlighted the company’s release of a new report that “examines how oil slump profiles have been accentuated in shale oil zones of the United States over the past decade.”
EIR stated in the note that while recoveries for the average US shale oil well have doubled in the past decade, production profiles for the average well have tilted by more than half a percentage point annually since 2010.
In the Permian, home to the largest U.S. oil production, the Midland Basin’s average oil production profile has tilted 0.5 percentage point each year since 2014, EIR said in the note, and he added that the Delaware Basin has become even more pronounced since that time. .
EIR stated in the note that it expects Permian-type curve shapes to continue to increase over time as the basin becomes more densely developed. As a result, average break-even prices will increase, the company added.
“The US shale industry has been massively successful, roughly doubling average oil production over the past decade, but that trend has slowed in recent years,” said Dane Gregoris, author of the report and director general of EIR. indicated in the note.
“Also, we have observed that the decline curves, that is, the rate at which production falls over time, are getting steeper and the density is increasing. In short, the industry’s treadmill is accelerating and this will make production growth more difficult than in the past,” he added.
In the US Energy Information Administration’s latest drilling productivity report, which was released on August 14, the Permian is expected to produce 5.81 million barrels of oil per day in August and 5.79 million barrels of oil per day in September.
The report sees the Bakken producing 1.20 million barrels of oil per day this month and 1.21 million barrels of oil per day next month, and the Eagle Ford producing 1.12 million barrels of oil in day in August and 1.10 million barrels of oil per day in September. .
To contact the author, please send an email andreas.exarcheas@rigzone.com
