At the time of writing, the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking five disturbances in the Atlantic.
An unnamed disturbance is in the Gulf of Mexico and has an 80 percent chance of cyclone formation within 48 hours, as of 8 a.m. EDT, the NHC site said.
“Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located in the central Gulf of Mexico,” noted a statement posted on the NHC site this morning.
“Environmental conditions appear favorable for the development of this system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form before it reaches the western Gulf of Mexico coast on Tuesday,” the statement added.
“Interests in southern Texas and northern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm warnings or advisories are likely to be issued later today,” the statement continued.
Another unnamed disturbance is in the eastern tropical Atlantic and has a 40 percent chance of cyclone formation within 48 hours, as of 8 a.m. EDT, according to the NHC site.
“Showers and thunderstorms over the Cape Verde Islands and parts of the tropical eastern Atlantic are associated with a tropical wave,” the statement on the NHC site said.
“Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for the gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week as it moves west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic Eastern,” he added.
The NHC site is also tracking Tropical Storms Franklin, Gert, and Emily.
At 5 AM AST, Tropical Storm Franklin had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and a westward motion of 12 mph, and Tropical Storm Gert had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and a westward motion of nine miles per hour west, NHC site shown. Tropical Storm Emily had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and west-northwest motion of 12 mph, the NHC site noted.
In a statement posted on its website earlier this month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) revealed that scientists at its Climate Prediction Center had raised their forecast for the hurricane season from Atlantic 2023 from a near-normal level of activity to a higher level. – Normal level of activity.
NOAA said in the statement that its forecasters had raised the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60 percent, noting that the organization’s previous outlook in May called for a 30 percent chance of that. The chance of near-normal activity has dropped to 25 percent, down from a 40 percent chance projected in May, NOAA said.
In the statement, NOAA said its forecast update for 2023 calls for 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, six to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), and of those, two to five could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or higher), he projected NOAA in the statement.
Atlantic weather systems have severely affected oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico in the past. For example, at its peak, Hurricane Ida shut down 95.65 percent of Gulf of Mexico oil production on Aug. 29, 2021, and 94.47 percent of Gulf of Mexico gas production on Aug. 31, 2021, Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) figures show.
In October 2020, BSEE estimated at one point that approximately 84.8 percent of oil production and 57.6 percent of natural gas production in the US Gulf of Mexico had been closed as a result of the Zeta storm. Several other storms affected U.S. oil and gas production in 2020, including Hurricane Delta, Hurricane Sally, Hurricane Laura, and Tropical Storm Cristobal.
As of this writing, BSEE is not reporting any production disruptions related to the disturbances the NHC is currently tracking in the Atlantic.
In a statement sent to Rigzone earlier this month, the American Red Cross of the Texas Gulf Coast Region warned that “people in our communities are facing another active hurricane year” and he urged “everyone to prepare now.”
“Across the country, we are launching nearly twice as many major disaster relief operations as we did a decade ago,” Vanessa Valdez, acting director of communications for the Texas Gulf Coast Region of the American Red Cross.
“Due to this dramatic jump in the number of major disasters we are responding to, we need more volunteers so we can continue to provide aid on a near-constant basis to ensure families are supported when they need it most,” added Valdez .
To contact the author, please send an email andreas.exarcheas@rigzone.com
