The world consumes about 100 Mb/d of liquid fuels, which are vitally important to all segments of the global economy and to almost every aspect of our daily lives. The size and scope of this market means that it is affected by all sorts of short-term forces: economic ups and downs, geopolitics, national developments and major weather events, just to name a few, some of which are difficult , if not impossible, to foresee. But while these events can sometimes come out of nowhere, there are some long-term forces on the horizon that will shape markets for decades to come, even if the magnitude of these changes could be debate One is a move to prioritize alternative fuel sources over crude oil, but a significant shift won’t happen as quickly as many forecasts would suggest, and that has big implications for liquid fuel demand and the outlook for northern refineries. – american In today’s RBN blog, we discuss these issues and other highlights from RBN’s Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) practice’s recent webcast on its recently released update of The future of fuels report
It’s no secret that energy markets can sometimes turn on a dime. This is especially true since the early 2020s. In the past three years, a variety of events, including a pandemic-induced market crash, followed by a price spike caused by Europe’s largest land war since World War II, it’s sometimes made us feel like we’re on an old wooden roller coaster, complete with all the hair-raising highs and lows and twists and turns that leave your brain pounding in your head. Other rides are smoother and slower, like the small-scale railroad that circles an amusement park, and you can generally anticipate what’s coming down the track, similar to the long-term movement toward alternative fuels that has been driven by largely due to government policy. In the US, these policies include higher fuel efficiency requirements for new cars and trucks and expanded tax credits to accelerate electric vehicle (EV) adoption. It is oft-repeated that global oil demand is on the horizon, perhaps even within the next decade, but RFA continues to believe that the horizon is further away than consensus, mainly due to various economic, technical and related to the market. obstacles
