Despite the military escalation between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea in recent weeks, the risk profile of the region has not evolved significantly.
That’s according to Dryad Global Analyst Noah Trowbridge, who told Rigzone that drifting sea mines remain the main threat to oil and gas tankers in the area.
“Tensions have risen since Russia’s withdrawal from the UN-brokered grain deal in July 2023, which allowed commercial exports of food and fertilizer from three key Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea, which led in particular to drone strikes and naval attacks on merchant ships in the Black Sea in recent weeks,” Trowbridge said.
“Both countries have issued warnings that ships transiting key ports on either side would be considered possible military vessels. Ships are advised to avoid Ukrainian waters and cooperate with naval authorities,” he added.
“Despite the rhetoric from both Russia and Ukraine, these incidents have not involved commercial vessels taking an innocent legal step. The main threat to oil and gas tankers remains from drifting sea mines,” Trowbridge continued.
Dryad’s global analyst told Rigzone that by 2023, drifting sea mines have been detected in the waters of Turkey, Romania and Georgia.
“The risk level is assessed as high in the western Black Sea and low in the eastern Black Sea, where the Turkish navy has increased its presence,” he said.
Trowbridge noted that the threat of harassment and boarding of merchant ships by the Ukrainian navy remains low, “as Kiev relies on its credibility to maintain international support.”
“In contrast, the threat of harassment and boarding by Russian vessels, while still relatively low, is likely to increase as Black Sea tensions heat up and negotiations for a new grain deal continue at a standstill,” he added.
Warning shots
On Sunday, a Russian navy ship fired warning shots at a cargo ship sailing in the southwestern Black Sea, Dryad Global said in its latest Maritime Security Threat Alert (MSTA), which posted this week.
At the MSTA, Dryad noted that the event marked “the first instance of Russia targeting merchant ships beyond Ukraine since it pulled out of a major UN-brokered grain deal last month.” .
“The Russian statement identified the warship as the patrol vessel Vasily Bykov, which took action against the Palau-registered vessel Sukru Okan,” Dryad added to the MSTA.
“While Russia claimed the vessel was en route to the Ukrainian port of Izmail, Refinitiv’s shipping data indicated its proximity to the Bulgarian coast, heading for the Romanian port of Sulina,” Dryad continued .
During the last reporting period, Ukraine declared a “humanitarian passage” in the Black Sea to facilitate the exit of cargo ships that have been confined to its ports since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Dryad noted in the last MSTA headquarters.
“This passage serves as a new challenge to Russia’s implicit blockade, especially after Moscow reneged on an agreement last month that allowed Kiev to export grain,” Dryad told MSTA.
“Moscow has not yet indicated whether it will recognize the sea crossing, and people in the shipping and insurance sectors have expressed concerns about security,” Dryad added.
Ukraine war
In its latest annual State of Maritime Security report, which was published earlier this year, Dryad stated that the Ukraine war was the most significant risk event to disrupt global maritime trade during 2022.
“The conflict has affected the shipping industry in a number of ways, including restricting freedom of navigation within the Black Sea, disrupting trade with Russia and Ukraine and having to deal with the burden of sanctions imposed on Russia and the associated increase of insurance premiums,” he said. reported report.
“Despite significant restrictions on freedom of navigation throughout the Black Sea, vessels operating in the region and those participating in the UN-brokered grain deal have been largely unaffected by the operations ongoing military operations,” the report added.
“However, ships continue to face an increased threat from drifting sea mines, geopolitical uncertainty and increased military traffic,” he continued.
The report revealed that there have been around 50 incidents of drifting sea mines sighted, destroyed or detonated in the vast Black Sea since the conflict began in 2022, “with approximately 30 percent of these have occurred beyond Ukrainian waters.”
To contact the author, please send an email andreas.exarcheas@rigzone.com
