Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center have increased their forecast for the ongoing 2023 Atlantic hurricane season from a near-normal activity level to a higher-than-normal level of activity, NOAA said in a statement posted on its site.
NOAA said in the statement that its forecasters have raised the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60 percent, noting that the organization’s previous outlook in May predicted a of 30 percent of that. The chance of near-normal activity has dropped to 25 percent, down from a 40 percent chance projected in May, NOAA said.
In the statement, NOAA said its forecast update for 2023 calls for 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, six to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), and of those, two to five could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or higher), he projected NOAA in the statement.
NOAA revealed in its statement that it provides its new ranges with 70 percent confidence. The updated ranks include storms that have already formed this season, the organization noted.
NOAA also noted in its statement that its hurricane outlooks are forecasts of overall activity for the season, untouched. A storm’s landfall is usually the result of mesoscale weather patterns and is usually predictable within about a week after a storm approaches a land mass, the organization said in the statement.
“The National Weather Service is dedicated to providing timely and accurate forecasts to empower individuals, families and communities to take proactive action this hurricane season,” said Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, in a press release from the organization.
“New tools such as a new hurricane model, the Hurricane Forecasting and Analysis System, and the extension of the National Hurricane Center’s tropical weather outlook to seven days are examples of our commitment to improving our capabilities and forecasting services,” he added.
Reasons for the change
“Forecasters believe that current atmospheric and oceanic conditions, including record Atlantic sea surface temperatures, will likely offset the usually limiting atmospheric conditions associated with the ongoing El Nino event,” NOAA said in the his statement
“El Nino conditions are currently being observed, and there is a greater than 95 percent chance that El Nino will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, according to the latest ENSO discussion from the Center for Climate Prediction,” he added.
“El Nino typically results in atmospheric conditions that help reduce tropical activity during the Atlantic hurricane season. So far, these limiting conditions have been slow to develop, and climate scientists predict that the associated impacts that tend to limit tropical cyclone activity may not be present for much of the remainder of the hurricane season,” he continued.
“A forecast of below-normal wind shear, slightly below-normal Atlantic trade winds and a near-to-above-normal West African monsoon were also key factors in shaping this updated seasonal forecast NOAA stated.
In NOAA’s latest release, Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster for NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said: “The main climate factors expected to influence hurricane activity 2023 Atlantic hurricanes are the ongoing Nino and warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, including record Atlantic sea surface temperatures.”
“Given these factors, the updated outlook calls for more activity, so we urge everyone to prepare now for the continued season,” he added.
Hurricane Tracker
The Atlantic basin experienced an active start to the hurricane season with five storms reaching at least tropical storm strength, including already one hurricane, NOAA said in its statement. An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes, he added.
At the time of this writing, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking two disturbances in the Atlantic, but notes that both have a zero percent chance of cyclone formation in 48 hours.
In the eastern Pacific, the NHC is currently tracking Hurricane Fernanda, Tropical Storm Greg and an unnamed disturbance, which it predicts has an 80 percent chance of cyclone formation in the next 48 hours.
Previous predictions
Back to your May outlookNOAA predicted a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season, and a 30 percent chance of a below-normal season.
The organization previously forecast a range of 12 to 17 named storms and noted that of those, five to nine could become hurricanes, including one to four major hurricanes. NOAA revealed in May that it had 70 percent confidence in those ranges.
“The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than in recent years due to competing factors driving this year’s overall forecast for a near-normal season,” NOAA noted in its May forecasts
“After three hurricane seasons with La Nina present, NOAA scientists predict a high potential for El Nino to develop this summer, which may suppress Atlantic hurricane activity,” NOAA added in this communicated
In 2022, NOAA revealed that its outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season predicts a 65 percent chance of an above-normal season., a 25 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season. At the time, the organization predicted a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms, of which it said six to 10 could become hurricanes, including three to six major hurricanes.
Hurricane effect on oil and gas
Atlantic weather systems have severely affected oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico in the past. For example, at its peak, Hurricane Ida shut down 95.65 percent of Gulf of Mexico oil production on Aug. 29, 2021, and 94.47 percent of Gulf of Mexico gas production on Aug. 31, 2021, Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) figures show. In October 2020, BSEE estimated at one point that approximately 84.8 percent of oil production and 57.6 percent of natural gas production in the US Gulf of Mexico had been closed as a result of the Zeta storm. Several other storms affected U.S. oil and gas production in 2020, including Hurricane Delta, Hurricane Sally, Hurricane Laura, and Tropical Storm Cristobal.
Upgrades, Cash Boost
In a statement posted on its site on August 10, NOAA revealed that it and the Commerce Department had expanded the capacity of the US Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System (WCOSS) by 20 percent.
Increased computing power and storage will help improve forecast model guidance for years to come and enable other advances in weather prediction, NOAA said in the release.
“Our investment in high-performance computing will pay off with better weather modeling in the United States,” Michael C. Morgan, the assistant secretary of commerce for environmental observation and prediction, said in the statement.
“Forecast model updates made possible by this increased computing capability will deliver improved and timely forecasts and warnings that will better protect life and property,” he added.
On July 27, NOAA announced a $7 million funding opportunity through President Biden’s Investing in America agenda “to establish a new multi-university data assimilation consortium that will improve weather predictions.”
Funded by the Biden Inflation Reduction Act, this award will provide up to $7 million over three years beginning in fiscal year 2024 for a new consortium focused on numerical weather prediction, NOAA said in a statement posted on its site last month.
This new consortium will strengthen NOAA’s forecast models, provide strategic workforce development in data assimilation, and enhance long-term partnerships between NOAA and those working in academia, government, and ‘broader weather enterprise, he added.
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