In a new report sent to Rigzone late Monday, Macquarie strategists said they are forecasting U.S. crude inventories up 2.6 million barrels for the week ending August 4.
“This follows a 17.0 million barrel draw for the week ending July 28, with the extremely large draw potentially representing a catch-up following a surprisingly soft balance in the prior week,” the strategists noted in the report.
“To this end, we note cumulatively over the past two weeks, our balances were fairly close to total EIA reported crude draws,” they added.
In the report, the strategists revealed that, for this week, from refineries, they model a “small reduction” in crude runs (-0.1 MBD) and a “wide swing” in net imports, “with exports sharply lower on a nominal basis (-1.9 MBD) and imports modestly higher (+0.2 MBD)”.
“From implied domestic supply (prod + adj.), we look for a bounce-back (+0.7 MBD), following last week’s weak print,” the strategists stated in the report.
“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a small increase in SPR inventory on the week (+1.0 million barrels),” they added.
“While our crude balances call for fundamental loosening in this week’s stats, we remain wary of week to week noise in the data given recent releases,” they continued.
The strategists also highlighted in the report that, at Cushing, their refinery/pipeline model is calling for a draw of 0.3 million barrels this week.
“In aggregate, we look for a flattish refined products picture, with a gasoline draw (-1.2 million barrels) largely offset by builds in distillate (+0.3 million barrels) and jet (+0.6 million barrels),” they said in the report.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.4 MBD compared to 14.4 MBD last week and a trailing four-week avg. of 14.1 MBD,” they added.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report, which was released on August 2 and contained data for the week ending July 28, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 17.0 million barrels from the previous week.
“At 439.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are approximately one percent below the five year average for this time of year,” the EIA stated in the report.
U.S. crude oil stocks, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, stood at 456.8 million barrels as of July 21, 2023, and 426.6 million barrels as of July 29, 2022, according to the latest EIA report.
There were 346.8 million barrels of crude oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as of July 28 and July 21, 2023, the report revealed. This figure stood at 469.9 million barrels as of July 29, 2022, the report showed.
The next EIA weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on August 9 and will show data for the week ending August 4. The report shows the petroleum supply situation in the context of historical information and selected prices, according to the EIA’s website.
In a separate report sent to Rigzone on July 31, Macquarie strategists projected that U.S. crude inventories would be down 9.3 million barrels for the week ending July 28.
“This follows a 0.6 million barrel draw for the week ending July 21, with the total U.S. crude balance realizing much looser than our expectations and exhibiting extremely strong implied supply,” the strategists said in that report.
“While crude balances have been realizing softer than our expectations MTD, we believe last week’s particularly disappointing draw can conceivably be attributed to inherent noise in the data,” the strategists added.
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