OPEC predicted an even tighter global oil market next year, as the group anticipates a much larger increase in demand than other major forecasters.
Global oil consumption will rise by 2.2 million barrels a day next year to 104.3 million a day, the organization said on Thursday in its first detailed assessment of 2024. This is double the growth rate projected by the International Energy Agency, which advises consumer nations. .
The increase in demand would exceed the expected increase in supply from outside the cartel, raising the world’s daily appetite for OPEC crude to 30.2 million barrels, or about 2 million barrels more than that bombed last month. That could allow the group to ease production cuts it is making this year to bolster prices.
Saudi Arabia and its partners have cut output to balance markets amid a faltering global economy and unexpectedly robust supplies from exporters such as Iran and Russia, both part of a broader alliance known as OPEC+.
Oil prices rose above $80 a barrel in London on Wednesday for the first time in two months as these supply curbs, which include additional unilateral cuts by the Saudis in July and August, tighten markets. Demand in China also appears robust despite shaky economic indicators.
The Paris-based IEA, which also released its latest outlook on Thursday, expects demand growth of 1.1 million barrels per day next year. The expansion of oil consumption will be limited by improved fuel efficiency and the growing popularity of electric vehicles, the agency said.
The 13 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped an average of 28.2 million barrels a day in June, up a fraction from the previous month, the report said.
The 23-nation OPEC+ alliance is due to formally hold a follow-up meeting next month, although a date has not yet been set. The coalition is scheduled to hold a full ministerial meeting on November 26.
