The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revealed its latest Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price forecasts in the July edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
According to the July STEO, the EIA now sees the Brent spot price averaging $79.34 per barrel in 2023 and $83.51 per barrel in 2024, and the WTI spot price at 74, $43 per barrel this year and $78.51 per barrel next year.
The latest price projections reflect very little movement compared to the EIA’s June STEO, which saw Brent spot prices reaching $79.54 a barrel in 2023 and $83.51 a barrel in 2024, and the WTI spot price averaging $74.60 per barrel in 2023 and $78.51 per barrel. barrel next year.
In a quarterly price breakdown included in the latest STEO, the EIA noted that the Brent spot price averaged $81.04 per barrel in the first quarter of this year and $78.02 per barrel in second quarter, while the WTI spot price was $75.96 per barrel in the second quarter. first quarter and $73.49 per barrel in the second quarter.
Looking further ahead, the latest STEO projected the Brent spot price to average $78.32 a barrel in the third quarter of this year, $79.97 a barrel in the fourth quarter, $81.98 in barrel in the first quarter of next year, $83 a barrel in the neighborhood. second quarter of next year, $84 a barrel in the third quarter of 2024 and $85 a barrel in the fourth quarter.
The EIA’s July STEO forecast the WTI spot price to be $73.32 per barrel in the third quarter of 2023, $74.97 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $76.98 per barrel in the first quarter next year, $78 per barrel in the second quarter. of 2024, $79 per barrel in the third quarter of next year and $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
“Our forecast Brent crude spot price rises gradually in the coming months, reflecting our expectation that global oil inventories will decline,” the EIA stated in its July STEO.
“The price of Brent averaged $75 a barrel in June, unchanged from May, as ongoing concerns about weakening global economic conditions continued to limit expectations for growth in global demand for oil, which offset upward pressure on near-term oil supply prices,” the EIA added. .
“The reduction in expected near-term oil supply was the result of extended OPEC+ crude production cuts announced on June 4 and an extension of voluntary cuts until August announced by Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia on July 3. We expect production cuts and increased demand to push prices higher going forward,” the EIA continued.
In a report sent to Rigzone this week, Standard Chartered projected the price of Brent ICE to be $91 per barrel this year and $98 per barrel in 2024. The company expects NYMEX WTI to be $88 per barrel this year and $95 per barrel this year. barrel next year, according to the report, which also included a quarterly breakdown of prices.
Brent is expected to reach $88 per barrel in the third quarter of this year, $93 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $92 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $94 per barrel in the second quarter of 2024, $98 per barrel in the third quarter of 2024, and $106 per barrel in the fourth quarter of next year, the report shows.
In the report, WTI is forecast at $85 in the third quarter of 2023, $91 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $89 per barrel in the first quarter of 2024, $91 per barrel in the second quarter, $95 per barrel the third trimester. next year, and $103 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
At the time of writing, Brent is trading at $80.36 a barrel and WTI is trading at $75.87 a barrel. The 2023 year-to-date close was on January 23 at $88.19 a barrel, and the 2023 year-to-date close was on June 12 at $71.84 a barrel. WTI’s 2023 year-to-date close was seen on January 26 at $87.47 a barrel, and its 2023 year-to-date close was on June 12 at $67. $12 a barrel.
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