Energy Affairs’ head of geopolitics, Richard Bronze, has told Rigzone that he sees no realistic prospect of restoring the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) after the failed negotiations during 2021-22.
“In recent months, there have been indirect talks between the US and Iran to explore a much more limited deal that would limit aspects of Iran’s nuclear program, particularly the enrichment of uranium to a purity greater than 20 percent, in exchange for a moderate easing of US sanctions,” Bronze said.
“There is no firm timetable for these diplomatic efforts, but if there is a willingness on both sides to engage, it could be possible to conclude an agreement in the coming months,” he added.
“One issue that is being negotiated is a foreign prisoner exchange, so any such announcement could be an indicator that talks are moving forward,” he continued.
Bronze also stressed that, “importantly for oil markets,” he does not expect the U.S. to accept any “significant relief from oil sanctions as part of a limited deal of the kind that now appears to be under discussion.”
“However, in recent months Iran has managed to significantly increase both oil production and exports despite secondary US sanctions remaining in place, with most of the additional volumes being smuggled into China “, he said.
Emily Hawthorne, RANE’s senior Middle East and North Africa analyst, told Rigzone that, right now, the most likely scenario for a new nuclear deal is the continuation of US-Iran talks “which help keep tensions at manageable levels and reduce them.” the risk of a major escalation, even as Iran steadily advances its nuclear program”.
“A deal is possible, but not likely at this point,” Hawthorne said, adding that “if Iran and the West agree to negotiate a new nuclear deal, which at this point in the current phase of tension between Iran and the U.S. It could only be an interim and limited deal, requiring the U.S. to make major concessions on key issues such as granting financial relief and allowing Iran to keep some advanced enrichment equipment uranium”.
“Because these concessions would be politically controversial, they are likely to be expanded only under a democratic U.S. administration,” Hawthorne told Rigzone.
Production Iran
Iran produced 3.822 million barrels of oil per day in 2022, according to the Energy Institute’s (EI) World Energy Statistical Review 2023.
This figure represented a 4.6% year-on-year increase and a 4.1% share of total global oil production in 2022, the report shows. The country’s oil production was 3.653 million barrels per day in 2021, 3.120 million barrels per day in 2020, 3.407 million barrels per day in 2019, 4.620 million barrels per day in 2018, 4.854 million barrels per day, 4.854 million barrels per day barrels per day, 2057 million barrels per day. day in 2016, 3.853 million barrels per day in 2015, 3.714 million barrels per day in 2014, 3.609 million barrels per day in 2013 and 3.810 million barrels per day in 2012, according to the review.
Oil production statistics from the EI review include crude oil, shale oil, oil sands, condensates (lease condensates or gas condensates that require further refining), and NGLs (natural gas liquids: ethane , LPG and naphtha separated from natural gas production).
A White House briefing released on May 8, 2018 revealed that then-US President Donald J. Trump was ending US participation in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with the Iran and reimposed the sanctions lifted under the agreement.
“The Iran deal was one of the worst and most one-sided deals the United States has ever made,” Trump said in the briefing at the time.
According to the OPEC website, Iran, which is a founding member of the organization, produced 2.392 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2021.
During that year, Iran’s crude oil exports reached 763,000 barrels per day, the value of the country’s oil exports was $25.313 billion, and its oil demand was 1.777 million barrels per day, the OPEC website showed.
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