With final investment decisions looming, the Rosebank and Cambo fields act as barometers for the future of UK North Sea oil and gas production.
That’s what Malcolm Forbes-Cable, Wood Mackenzie’s EMEA Upstream Energy Consulting Vice President, said in a recent Wood Mackenzie market note sent to Rigzone.
“If none of these fields reach full development, it will be difficult to make a clear economic case for the fields with less potential,” Forbes-Cable said in the note.
The development of the Rosebank and Cambo oil fields in the North Sea would save 17 million tonnes of CO2 emissions over their expected lifetime compared to the equivalent amount of imported oil and gas, according to Malcolm Forbes-Cable, highlighted the note from Wood Mackenzie.
The Wood Mackenzie note also noted that, in a presentation at the DEVEX conference in Aberdeen in June, Forbes-Cable told delegates that, along with lower emissions compared to imports, Rosebank and Cambo would contribute up to $50.9 billion (GBP 40 billion). ) of gross value added to the UK economy and create 900 long-term jobs.
“The UK plays a critical role in the integrated European energy market and these developments would seek to reduce the UK’s need to import carbon-intensive alternatives,” Forbes-Cable said in the note.
“From an economic perspective, the business case for developing these two fields is compelling and there is the added benefit of the additional energy security it would bring to the UK,” he added.
Rosebank, Cambodia
Equinor acquired the Rosebank operation, located 80 miles west of the Shetland Islands, in 2019, the company said on its website, adding that it is developing the field together with its partners.
Over its lifetime, Rosebank is expected to produce 300 million barrels of oil, according to the Equinor site, which notes that the field is being developed as part of the government’s North Sea Transition Agreement of the UK, “and will deliver much-needed energy security and investment in the UK while supporting the UK’s net zero target”.
The field will be developed with a redeployed, refurbished floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel tied to a subsea production system, the Equinor site notes. First production is scheduled for 2027.
The Cambo field is also approximately 80 miles west of the Shetland Islands, about 20 miles south of Rosebank and about 20 miles north of Schiehallion, Ithaca Energy, which has a 70 percent interest in the field, stands out in its place.
Discovered in 2002, the field is a large high basement with sedimentary sequences at the top of the structure and is located on the Corona Ridge structural feature, the Ithaca site notes. Cambo will be developed with a purpose-built Sevan FPSO and will use modern equipment designed to operate without the need for routine blowdown or hydrocarbon venting to reduce emissions, according to the site.
When production begins, the field is expected to produce less than half the amount of CO2 for each barrel produced than the average UK field, Ithaca noted.
A final investment decision for Rosebank is expected in the third quarter of this year and a final investment decision for Cambo is expected to follow Rosebank, Wood Mackenzie said in its market note.
Production, exploration
In a separate market note sent to Rigzone earlier this month, Wood Mackenzie revealed that it estimates almost five billion barrels of oil equivalent will be produced from approved oil and gas fields in the UK.
According to the note, the potential of pre-final investment decision projects, reserve growth and existing discoveries adds up to three billion more barrels of oil equivalent.
Wood Mackenzie also highlighted in the note that it estimates that the UK has yet to find potential resources of just over one billion barrels of oil equivalent.
This is “overwhelmingly” in existing exploration licenses, according to the note, which highlights that the last new acreage to see a commercial discovery was awarded in 2012. The previous two license rounds failed to achieve any drilling commitments and the first exploration well of The last round of 2020 is only expected to be drilled this year, the note said.
“In short, the industry has long had the opportunity to secure the UK’s most prospective acreage and has largely done so,” Greg Roddick, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said in the note.
“There is no guarantee that new commercial discoveries will be found. Those that are are likely to be small and unlikely to reverse the trend given the maturity of the UK continental shelf,” he added.
“Given the challenging environment in the UK, open acreage would be considered much higher risk and unlikely to attract the attention of major industry scouts,” continued Roddick.
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