China National Petroleum Corp. cut its forecast for the country’s oil demand this year as the post-Covid economic recovery continues to disappoint.
China’s demand is expected to rise 3.5 percent to 740 million tons, Wang Lining, a senior petroleum researcher at CNPC’s Institute of Economic and Technological Research, said at a conference in Beijing on Tuesday. This is below the March forecast of 5.1% growth in 2023.
The disappointing economic data has dashed the hopes of traders who were betting that a rebound in China, after the world’s top oil importer abandoned its Zero Covid policy late last year, would boost demand growth. Still, Chinese crude imports should reach 540 million tonnes this year, close to a record in 2020, said Wang, who expects the country’s oil demand to peak in 2030.
CNPC, China’s largest oil and gas producer, expects gasoline demand to likely exceed 2019 levels, while diesel and kerosene use will be within 5% of pre-Covid demand. Transportation fuel use will peak in 2025, with diesel rising from 177 million tons this year to 133 million tons in 2035 as trucks switch to hydrogen fuel.
