Who will consume more liquid fuels this year: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries or non-OECD countries?
According to the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which was released earlier this month, non-OECD countries will consume 55.02 million of barrels per day this year and OECD countries will consume 46.00 million barrels per day.
Within non-OECD countries, China is expected to consume 15.95 million barrels per day, while the rest of Asia is expected to consume 14.06 million barrels per day. Non-OECD Europe is expected to consume 0.76 million barrels per day, non-OECD Eurasia is expected to consume 4.54 million barrels per day, and other non-OECD OECD consume 19.70 million barrels per day.
Within the OECD, the US is expected to consume 20.43 million barrels per day of the group’s consumption figure in 2023, excluding the North American territories, which are expected to consume 0.12 million barrels per day. Europe is expected to consume 13.49 million barrels per day, Japan 3.32 million barrels per day and Canada 2.29 million barrels per day. Other OECD countries are expected to consume 6.35 million barrels per day.
Total world consumption this year is forecast to stand at 101.01 million barrels per day, according to the STEO, which shows that figure was 99.42 million barrels per day in 2022. Consumption outside the ‘OECD was 53.49 million barrels per day last year and OECD consumption was 45.94 million barrels per day, showed the latest STEO of the EIA.
“We forecast that global consumption of liquid fuels will increase by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2023 from an average of 99.4 million barrels per day last year,” the EIA said in its June STEO.
“Our forecast consumption grows by an additional 1.7 million barrels per day in 2024. Most of this growth comes from non-OECD countries,” the EIA added.
“Overall, we expect U.S. liquid fuel consumption to increase in both 2023 and 2024, driven by factors largely unrelated to economic growth forecasts,” the EIA continued in the STEO.
“Consumption growth in 2023 is led by gasoline and jet fuel, which continues to increase from a pandemic-related demand decline. Propane and ethane consumption are the main drivers of growth in 2024 “, the EIA continued to point out.
In its previous STEO, which was released in May, the EIA projected that non-OECD countries would consume 54.97 million barrels per day in 2023 and OECD countries would consume 46.02 million barrels per day Total 2023 liquid fuel consumption in this STEO was expected to be 100.99 million barrels per day.
“While demand growth for liquid fuels faces downside risks through the end of 2024, we expect the seasonal increase in oil consumption and a drop in OPEC crude production to exert a some upward pressure on crude oil prices in the coming months,” the EIA noted. at their May STEO.
“Global consumption of liquid fuels is forecast to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2023 and 1.7 million barrels per day in 2024, with the most expected growth in demand for liquid fuels in Asia not member of the OECD, led by China and India,” he added. .
“We expect this demand growth to rebalance the global oil market between Q3 2023 and Q1 2024 and bring Brent prices back from current levels to between $75 per barrel and $80 per barrel,” he said. continue the EIA.
The OECD countries are Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States.
The EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and unbiased energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment, its website states . The organization was created in response to the need for additional federal initiatives to collect and disseminate energy-related information, and to evaluate and analyze that information, according to the EIA site.
In a statement posted on its site in December 2020, the EIA noted that the STEO provides its short-term outlook on energy markets.
“Each month, the STEO provides forecasts until the end of the next calendar year for the consumption, supply, trade and prices of the main types of fuel,” the statement said.
“Additionally, STEO provides in-depth market analysis for the crude oil, petroleum products and natural gas markets. While its emphasis is on the U.S. energy markets, STEO also includes forecasts for certain international liquid fuel markets,” he added.
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