The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) that it expects US crude oil production to set annual records in 2023 and 2024, but added that growth is slowing.
“We estimate that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average $83 per barrel over the three years from 2022 to 2024, while annual growth in US crude oil production over the same period will average 0 .4 million barrels per day,” the EIA said. in his June STEO.
“This compares with average crude production growth of 1.1 million barrels per day over the three-year period from 2017 to 2019, when the price of WTI averaged just $58 per barrel,” the EIA added.
The changing response to crude oil prices by US producers may reflect a combination of using capital to raise dividends and buy back shares rather than investing in new production, the effects of tighter labor markets and costs higher, and increasing pressure on oilfield supply chains. the EIA indicated in the STEO.
“Despite this shift from the historic price response, we still expect US crude oil production to continue growing to record levels, driven primarily by production growth in the Permian Basin,” the EIA added.
According to the June STEO, US crude production will average 12.61 million barrels per day in 2023 and 12.77 million barrels per day in 2024. The bottom 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, consume 10.31 million barrels per day and 10.46 million barrels per day. of the total US share in 2023 and 2024, respectively, the STEO shows. The Federal Gulf of Mexico consumes 1.88 million barrels per day and 1.91 million barrels per day in 2023 and 2024, respectively, and Alaska takes 0.42 million barrels per day and 0.40 million barrels per day in 2023 and 2024, respectively, according to the STEO.
Taking a quarterly breakdown into account, the June STEO expects US crude production to average 12.56 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 12.57 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 12, 70 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 12.69 million barrels. per day in the first quarter of next year, 12.63 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2024, 12.76 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2024 and 13 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of next year.
US crude output averaged 11.89 million barrels per day in 2022, the June STEO noted. Last year, the lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, produced an average of 9.71 million barrels per day, the STEO revealed. The Federal Gulf of Mexico produced 1.74 million barrels per day and Alaska produced 0.44 million barrels per day, the STEO noted.
In its previous STEO, which was released in May, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil production would reach 12.53 million barrels per day in 2023 and 12.69 million barrels per day in 2024. In this STEO, the lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, were expected to take 10.21 million barrels per day and 10.37 million barrels per day of the total US share in 2023 and 2024, respectively. The Federal Gulf of Mexico was expected to consume 1.90 million barrels per day and 1.92 million barrels per day in 2023 and 2024, respectively, and Alaska was expected to consume 0.42 million barrels per day and 0. 40 million barrels per day in 2023 and 2024, respectively. .
According to EIA data dating back to January 1983, weekly U.S. crude oil production in the field reached a record 13.1 million barrels per day in the week ending February 28, 2020, and the week which ended March 13, 2020. Weekly US crude oil production in the field. Oil fell short of 12.5 million barrels a day the following month, 12 million barrels a day in May 2020 and 11.2 million barrels a day in June 2020, the data showed.
According to the latest data entry, weekly U.S. crude oil production from the field was 12.4 million barrels per day for the week ending June 9, 2023. The last time that weekly crude oil production in the United States it reached this figure was the week that ended. April 3, 2020, the data outlined.
The lowest weekly figure for weekly US crude production from EIA data was recorded for the week ending September 30, 2005, at 3.813 million barrels per day.
The EIA collects, analyzes and disseminates independent and unbiased energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and environment, according to its website . The organization was created in response to the need for additional federal initiatives to collect and disseminate energy-related information, and to evaluate and analyze that information, the EIA site notes.
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