Russia will struggle to meet its strategic goal of quadrupling shipping to the Arctic by the end of the decade as the nation cannot increase and upgrade its small and aging ice fleet fast enough, according to the operator of the Rosatom North Sea Route.
The Arctic route, which stretches more than 3,000 nautical miles (5,556 kilometers) between the Barents Sea and the Bering Strait, is the shortest passage between Europe and Asia. Global warming has made icy waters increasingly navigable, creating opportunities for Russian commodity exporters who are focusing on Asian markets amid the Kremlin’s standoff with the West over its invasion of Ukraine.
Russia aims to send at least 150 million tons of crude oil, liquefied natural gas, coal and other cargoes through its Northern Sea Route every year starting in 2030, a more than fourfold jump from the volumes shipped in 2022, according to the development of the North Sea Route. plan approved by the nation’s government.
However, this goal requires the construction of a new Arctic commercial fleet, according to Vyacheslav Ruksha, head of the Northern Sea Route Directorate of the state nuclear corporation Rosatom.
In the next seven years, the number of Russian Arctic cargo vessels, from oil and LNG tankers to bulk carriers and container ships, will need to grow to 160 from just 30 now, according to Ruksha’s presentation at the International Economy of St. Petersburg. Forum Thursday Currently, only 33 more ships are being built.
“I’m afraid we’re underestimating the technological issues here,” the Rosatom official said. “We cannot build these capabilities in this timeframe.”
Ruksha added that Russia’s fleet of ice-class supply ships, used for safe navigation in Arctic waters, is aging. More than 40% of the fleet is more than 30 years old, and this proportion will increase to 75% by 2030, according to its presentation.
“In order to increase the sailing time and reduce the shortage of supply ships, it is necessary to design a new universal supply ship” of a superior ice class, according to the presentation.
Russia has successfully increased shipments via the Arctic Sea Route in recent years, bringing it to more than 34 million tons by 2022, compared to just 7.5 million tons in 2016. The additional cargoes came from mainly from the Novatek PJSC-led Yamal LNG plant, with the super-refrigerated fuel producer relying on South Korea to supply new tankers.
Higher cargo volumes would be available with the launch of several major hydrocarbon projects, including the Novatek-led Arctic LNG 2 plant and the developed Rosneft PJSC’s Vostok Oil.
Relations between Russia and many of its former trading partners have been strained by the invasion of Ukraine. Korean shipyards will supply only five of the 15 LNG carriers contracted to Russia, Viktor Evtukhov, Russia’s deputy minister of industry and trade, said at the forum.
The country’s commodity producers will rely on domestic shipyards to grow their Arctic commercial fleet and are holding talks with Chinese shipbuilders to replace Korean partners, Evtukhov said.
