The Henry Hub gas price has remained relatively insulated from price changes in Europe, Rystad energy analyst Lu Ming Pang noted in a market update sent to Rigzone this morning.
While the price of gas from the Dutch title transfer facility hit $14.10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on June 15, “after a rally over the past two weeks from $7.90 on May 31,” and local Asian LNG prices in August rose to $12.59 per MMBtu. , Henry Hub remained at $2.41 on June 15, Rystad analyst explained in the update.
“The US remains isolated, with Henry Hub prices at $2.41 per MMBtu at the time of writing on June 15, compared to $2.23 per MMBtu on June 6 in our previous report” , Pang stated in the update.
“Strong storage and supply fundamentals remain in play in the US, keeping prices subdued,” Pang added.
In the update, Pang noted that storage levels were 2.55 billion cubic feet (Bcf) on June 2, which the analyst noted is 16 percent higher than the five-year average and 28 percent more than during the same period last year. Injections were 104 Bcf on June 2, Pang noted in the update, adding that this figure is four percent higher than the five-year average and five percent higher than during the same period last year. ‘last year.
“The weather in the United States is expected to be generally slightly cooler than normal until the last week of June, when it is expected to be warmer than normal,” Pang said in the update.
“Feed gas at U.S. liquefaction sites fell to 10.39 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) on June 13, marking the second straight week that feed gas levels fell below of 12 Bcfd for the first time on June 2. This is on the back of Sabine Pass LNG began scheduled maintenance on two out of six trains this month when feed gas was observed to drop below the 4 Bcfd mark on June 1,” Pang added.
“With reduced feed gas demand, high storage levels and a relatively mild climate, fundamentals are not expected to change in the US,” Pang said.
In a previous market update sent to Rigzone on June 7, Pang stated that US Henry Hub prices “remain deflated at $2.23 per MMBtu at the time of writing on June 6, lower to the $2.30 per MMBtu quoted in last week’s report.”
“This maintains the downward price trajectory from the peaks seen in 2022, with strong supply and storage fundamentals effectively suppressing Henry Hub prices, even through the summer injection season,” he added Pang.
In this update, Pang noted that storage levels rose to 2,446 Bcf on May 26, which the analyst revealed was 17 percent higher than the five-year average and 29 percent higher than during the same period last year. Pang noted in this update that the 110 Bcf injection was 10 percent higher than the five-year average injection and higher than the 82 Bcf injection last year.
“U.S. liquefaction feedstock was 11.29 Bcfd on June 4 and typically averaged around 12.36 Bcfd in May,” Pang said in the update to previous June
“Sabine Pass LNG contributed to this decline, which dropped feed gas to 3.1 Bcfd on June 4, below the typical average of 4.6 Bcfd seen in May. This was the fourth consecutive day since June 1 where feed gas fell below 4.0 Bcfd, suggesting ongoing maintenance,” Pang added.
At the time of writing, the Henry Hub price is quoted at $2.55 per MMBtu. The commodity’s 2023 year-to-date close was seen on January 4 at $4.17 per MMBtu, and its 2023 year-to-date close was seen on March 29 at $1.99 per MMBtu.
To contact the author, please send an email andreas.exarcheas@rigzone.com
