The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, in a statement posted on its site.
The forecast predicts a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 30 percent chance of a below-normal season, he noted NOAA in the statement, adding that the organization expects a range of 12 to 17 named storms in total.
Of those, five to nine could become hurricanes, including one to four major hurricanes, according to NOAA, which said it has 70 percent confidence in those ranges. The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than in recent years due to competing factors driving this year’s overall forecast for a near-normal season, NOAA noted.
“After three hurricane seasons with La Nina present, NOAA scientists predict a high potential for El Nino to develop this summer, which may suppress Atlantic hurricane activity,” NOAA said in the communicated
“The potential influence of El Nino on storm development could be offset by local favorable conditions in the tropical Atlantic basin. These conditions include the possibility of an above-normal West African monsoon, which produces African easterly waves and seeds some of the strongest and longest-lived Atlantic storms, and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, which creates more energy to fuel storm development,” NOAA added.
In NOAA’s latest statement, FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said, “as we saw with Hurricane Ian, it only takes one hurricane to cause widespread devastation and change lives.”
“So regardless of the number of storms predicted this season, it’s critical that everyone understands their risk and heeds the warnings of state and local officials,” Criswell added.
“Whether you live on the coast or inland, hurricanes can cause serious impacts to everyone in their path,” Criswell continued.
In the year 2022, NOAA revealed that its outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season predicts a 65 percent chance of an above-normal season., a 25 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season. At the time, the organization predicted a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms, of which it said six to 10 could become hurricanes, including three to six major hurricanes.
Atlantic weather systems have severely affected oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico in the past. For example, at its peak, Hurricane Ida shut down 95.65 percent of Gulf of Mexico oil production on Aug. 29, 2021, and 94.47 percent of Gulf of Mexico gas production on Aug. 31, 2021, Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) figures show. In October 2020, BSEE estimated at one point that approximately 84.8 percent of oil production and 57.6 percent of natural gas production in the US Gulf of Mexico had been closed as a result of the Zeta storm. Several other storms affected U.S. oil and gas production in 2020, including Hurricane Delta, Hurricane Sally, Hurricane Laura, and Tropical Storm Cristobal.
NOAA noted in its statement that its outlook is for general seasonal activity and is not a land forecast. In addition to its latest outlook, NOAA said its Climate Prediction Center will update its 2023 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, “just before the historic peak of the season.”
Summer updates
In its latest release, NOAA revealed that it will implement a number of updates and improvements this summer.
As part of these improvements, NOAA noted that it will expand the capacity of its operational supercomputing system by 20 percent, allowing it to improve and run more complex forecast models.
Additional updates, or new tools, for hurricane analysis and forecasting include the extension of the National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook chart from five to seven days, the extension of the Excessive Precipitation Outlook from three to five days and a new generation of flood forecasting. flood maps for parts of Texas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast from the National Weather Service, NOAA noted.
The organization also noted that it will continue to improve new and existing observing systems critical to understanding and forecasting hurricanes. Two projects underway this season include new technologies, including drone systems, underwater gliders and global sounding balloons, to advance hurricane knowledge and the modernization and update of the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Buoy Array, NOAA revealed .
NOAA said this upgrade will provide additional capabilities, updated instruments, more strategic placement of buoys and higher frequency observations. The data from these buoys are used to forecast El Nino and La Nina, which can influence hurricane activity, the organization said.
“Thanks to critical investments by the Department of Commerce and NOAA this year in scientific and technological advances in hurricane modeling, NOAA will be able to provide even more accurate forecasts, helping to ensure that communities have the information they need to prepare— se and respond to the economic destruction and ecological impacts of Atlantic hurricanes,” said Commerce Secretary Gina M. Raimondo in the statement.
NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said, “With a changing climate, the data and expertise NOAA provides to emergency managers and partners to support decision-making before, during and after a hurricane have never been more crucial.”
“To that end, this year we are launching a new hurricane forecast model and five- to seven-day tropical cyclone forecast chart, which will give emergency managers and communities more time to prepare it’s for storms,” he added.
central pacific
According to the forecast by NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, there is a 50 percent chance of above-normal tropical cyclone activity during the hurricane season of Central Pacific this year, NOAA revealed on its site.
NOAA noted that the forecast indicates a 35 percent chance of near-normal activity and a 15 percent chance of a below-normal hurricane season.
“The hurricane season in the central Pacific region is expected to be slightly busier this year, compared to a normal season,” said Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. in a press release from the organization.
“A key factor influencing our forecast is the expected arrival of El Nino this summer, which typically contributes to increased tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific Ocean basin,” he added.
Chris Brenchley, the director of NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center, said, “Recent hurricane seasons have been fairly quiet in Hawaii, prompting some people to let their guard down.”
“Now it looks like this season will be more active than the last few years,” he added.
“It’s more important than ever to review your emergency plan and supply kit now so you’ll be prepared for the next hurricane threat,” Brenchley continued.
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