China’s solar exports grew 64 percent to $52 billion in 2022 despite global trade tensions, according to Wood Mackenzie (WoodMac).
The country’s exports were mainly dominated by modules in 2022, WoodMac noted, adding that Europe remained the country’s top solar module export market with a 56 percent share. Solar cells saw more than 100 percent growth as the global PV market expanded, with Southeast Asia taking a 31 percent share of China’s solar cell exports , WoodMac noted.
According to WoodMac data, China’s PV export revenue rose to $52 billion last year from $32 billion in 2021, $22 billion in 2020, $21 billion in 2019 and $15 billion of dollars in 2018.
“Trade tensions have taken a back seat to high energy prices driven by the energy crisis, and this is driving consumers and developers around the world to buy more solar panels from China,” said the director of WoodMac research, Alex Whitworth, in a company statement.
WoodMac said U.S. tariffs on Chinese-made modules have boosted module production in Southeast Asia, where many manufacturing facilities import cells from China. Chinese modules were up to 57 percent cheaper than U.S. and EU-produced modules last year, according to the company, which noted that this price difference was mainly due to the cost of material,” where China has the advantage due to low energy costs, economies of scale, and government support”.
China’s PV manufacturing is expanding to capture global markets, WoodMac said, adding that the policies of the US, EU and India will not undermine the country’s dominance in this field.
“The US is counting on the IRA, which will allocate at least $41 billion to stimulate domestic manufacturing,” Whitworth said.
“But costs still favor imported modules, and even if more local module production comes online in the coming years, there will be a persistent reliance on component imports from Asia,” Whitworth added.
WoodMac noted that the US government’s goal of producing 100% US-made modules by 2026 will be difficult “due to a significant lack of wafer and cell production in the region, and incentives they cannot fully bridge the manufacturing cost gap between US-made and Chinese-made modules.”
In Europe, Whitworth said the EU advocates trade restrictions to ensure local PV manufacturing, but lacks specific policies to boost capacity growth and displace imports.
“India also has high ambitions to expand its PV manufacturing, but financial support is insufficient to meet aggressive targets,” Whitworth added.
Solar energy generation, capacity
According to BP’s latest statistical review of global energy, which was published last year, China had the highest solar power generation in 2021 at 327 terawatt-hours. The United States ranked second, with 165.4 terawatt-hours, and Japan ranked third, with 86.3 terawatt-hours, the review showed.
Total global solar generation in 2021 was 1,032.5 terawatt-hours, of which the OECD provided 523.3 terawatt-hours and non-OECD members provided 509.2 terawatt-hours hour, BP’s latest review revealed.
In addition to the largest solar generation, China had the largest solar capacity in 2021 with 306.4 GW of installed PV power, according to the review. The United States was second with 93.7 GW and Japan was third with 74.2 GW, according to the review. Total global solar capacity in 2021 was shown in the review to be 843.1 GW.
China topped Germany’s solar capacity in 2015, producing 43.5 GW at the time, the report noted. It had since held the top spot, according to BP’s review.
Renewable energy growth in China
In November last year, Rystad Energy projected that China’s renewable energy growth would “continue on a strong upward trajectory” which it said could reach 6,000 gigawatts (GW) of solar installed capacity photovoltaic and wind in 2050.
The company, which noted that China announced its goal of raising total installed solar PV and wind capacity to 1,200 GW by 2030 compared to 745 GW in 2022 during COP 26, said in a company statement at the time that current developments suggest that China will not only. meet this target, but could exceed it and increase total installed capacity to around 2,000 GW.
In the statement, Rystad emphasized that China had more than 90 percent of the world’s solar panel manufacturing capacity, “meaning the panels can be supplied at affordable prices.” Rystad also highlighted in the statement that since 2010, China had installed 160 GW of hydro capacity, 46 GW of nuclear, 360 GW of solar PV and 360 GW of wind, “making it the largest developer of renewable energy capacity worldwide.”
“China is ahead of the game: coal use in the power sector will approach its peak in two years, and new renewable energy will take off faster than any other country,” said Carlos Torrez Díaz, head of energy at Rystad Energy, in a company statement in November last year.
“Renewable-friendly economics and domestic solar manufacturing capacity mean China’s power sector could rapidly decarbonize by 2050,” he added.
“China has all the pieces needed to scale renewables quickly, and the extent of its success will have a global impact on global greenhouse gas emissions,” he continued.
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