Russia has agreed to extend the Black Sea grain deal for another 60 days after a series of further threats not to approve an extension, Dryad Global’s latest Maritime Security Threat Advisory (MSTA) noted .
“Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, stated that the agreement was extended because ‘we still do not lose hope that the issues we are raising will be resolved,'” Dryad Global stated in the latest MSTA, which was published this week.
“Beyond the grain deal, Turkish diplomats moved toward an agreement to release all Turkish cargo ships from Ukraine: some five dozen foreign ships have been stuck in Ukrainian ports,” Dryad added at the MSTA.
“It is hoped that the release of the Turkish ships will pave the way for the departure of other ships,” Dryad continued.
In its previous MSTA, which was published last week, Dryad highlighted that uncertainty remained over the future status of the UN-backed grains deal.
“Russian and Turkish media have cited sources close to the talks as indicating that a successful negotiation is imminent, while recent reports indicate that the talks have concluded with no future talks planned,” Dryad said at this MSTA.
“The grain deal remains a key lever of influence available to Russia to assert its will within the Black Sea and a vital tool for securing future concessions,” the company added.
In an MSTA published on April 24, Dryad noted that the Black Sea was “once again brought into focus by Russian threats to end grain shipping through the UN-negotiated grain deal mechanism “.
“Grain transportation remains one of the few mechanisms for cooperation and discussion between conflicting parties,” Dryad stated in this MSTA.
Positive and significant development
In a press briefing on the Black Sea Initiative, which was recently published on the UN website, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described Russia’s confirmation of continued participation in the Initiative of the Black Sea for another 60 days as a “positive and significant” development.
“The continuation is good news for the world,” Guterres said.
“There are outstanding issues, but the representatives of Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations will continue to discuss them,” he added.
“I hope that we will reach a comprehensive agreement to improve, expand and extend the Initiative,” said Guterres.
In a statement posted on its site on May 11, the UN revealed that a quadrilateral meeting was held in Istanbul to discuss the future of the Black Sea Initiative with senior officials from the Russian Federation, Turkey, Ukraine and the UN
In March, Dryad global analyst Krisztina Kocsis told Rigzone that if the Black Sea grain deal is suspended, it is unlikely that there will be dramatic immediate consequences that will be felt.
The analyst added, however, that since this is an agreement that aims to maintain a level of cooperation and provide a channel of communication and negotiation between the conflicting parties, its suspension would mean an overall increase in the uncertainty about the operating conditions of the Black Sea and would create a state of commercial volatility.
The Black Sea Grains Initiative was launched in Istanbul by the Russian Federation, Turkey, Ukraine and the United Nations on July 22, 2022, the UN notes on its website. Through this initiative, a mechanism was established for safe exports of cereals, related foods and fertilizers, including ammonia, from designated Ukrainian ports to global markets, the UN notes on its site.
To contact the author, please send an email andreas.exarcheas@rigzone.com
