Two-thirds of North America is at risk of experiencing power shortages this summer during periods of extreme demand, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has revealed.
According to NERC’s recently released Summer Reliability Assessment, the Midcontinent ISO (MISO), NPCC-New England, NPCC-Ontario, SERC-Central, Southwest Power Pool (SPP) interconnection areas ), Texas (ERCOT) and the US Western Interconnection areas. “They face the risks of a lack of electricity supply during periods of the most extreme summer conditions.”
In a statement accompanying the report, NERC noted that areas of the western US are at high risk due to wide-area heat events that can create above-normal demand and strain resources and the transmission network and highlighted that, at SPP and MISO, wind Power production will be key to meeting extreme demand levels and normal summer peaks due to the company’s low excess capacity .
The risk of drought and high temperatures in ERCOT may challenge system resources and may result in emergency procedures, including the need for operator-controlled load shedding during periods of low wind and generator outages, NERC said in the statement, adding that the Central SERC. The region anticipates higher peak demand and lower supply capacity, “creating challenges for operators to maintain reserves in extreme scenarios.”
NERC went on to note in the statement that New England has lower available capacity than last year, “resulting in an increased likelihood that system operators will use emergency procedures to manage extreme demand conditions.” In Ontario, extended nuclear renewal has reduced available capacity, limiting system reserves needed to handle peak demand, NERC warned in the statement.
“Rapid and increased deployment of wind, solar and batteries has had a positive impact,” said Mark Olson, manager of NERC’s Reliability Assessments, in a NERC commentary.
“However, generator shutdowns continue to increase the risks associated with extreme summer temperatures, influencing potential supply shortages in the western two-thirds of North America if summer temperatures rise,” he said. add.
Recent Actions
Earlier this month, NERC announced that it had issued the Level 3 Essential Action Alert: Cold weather preparations for extreme weather events III. The purpose of the Level 3 alert is to increase the preparedness of reliability coordinators, balancing authorities, generator owners and transmission operators to mitigate operational risk for winter 2023-2024 and beyond, the organization noted at the time.
The alert contains a set of eight specific actions that NERC has determined are essential for certain segments of owners, operators or users of the network to carry out to ensure its reliable operation, the organization highlighted, adding that it’s the first time NERC has issued a Level 3, which it said is the highest level of severity in NERC’s alert classification structure.
In April, NERC revealed that it had submitted a report evaluating CIP-014 reliability standard with FERC. The report, which was directed by FERC in an order dated December 15, 2022, requested that NERC study the rule’s applicability criteria and the adequacy of the risk assessment and assess whether it should establishing a minimum level of physical security protections for NERC noted at the time all bulk power system transmission stations, substations, and primary control centers.
“This assessment was important given the heightened physical security threat environment and high-profile attacks that occurred in the fourth quarter of 2022,” said Jim Robb, president and CEO of NERC, in a press release from the organization in April.
“Our study outlines actions to strengthen the physical security standard and encourage robust stakeholder engagement to consider additional risk-based improvements,” he added.
Winter Storm Elliott
In December of last year, NERC announced that it, NERC’s regional entities, and FERC would open a joint investigation into bulk power system operations during the extreme winter weather conditions that occurred during winter storm elliott.
NERC noted that the bitterly cold weather contributed to power outages that affected millions of electricity customers across the United States. While most of these outages were due to weather impacts on electrical distribution facilities operated by local utilities, utilities in parts of the Southeast were forced to suffer blackouts and the bulk power system in other regions was significantly stressed, NERC said.
“This storm underscores the increasing frequency of significant extreme weather events (the fifth major winter event in the last 11 years) and underscores the need for the power sector to change its planning scenarios and preparations for extreme events,” said Robb in that moment.
NERC describes itself as an international not-for-profit regulatory authority whose mission is to ensure the effective and efficient reduction of risks to grid reliability and security. NERC’s area of responsibility includes the continental United States, Canada, and northern Baja California, Mexico.
The organization is the Electric Reliability Organization for North America, subject to oversight by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and government authorities in Canada. Its jurisdiction includes users, owners and operators of the bulk power system, which serves nearly 400 million people, NERC’s website notes.
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