BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, has revealed its new NYMEX RBOB gasoline price forecasts through 2026 in a new report recently sent to Rigzone.
The firm now sees the commodity averaging $2.55 per gallon in 2023, $2.26 per gallon in 2024, $2.22 per gallon in 2025 and $2.20 per gallon in 2026. A consensus of The Bloomberg published report sees the commodity reaching $2 a gallon this year. , $2.70 per gallon next year, $2.65 per gallon in 2025 and $2.94 per gallon in 2026.
In a separate report sent to Rigzone in February, Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research saw the commodity averaging $2.70 per gallon in 2023, $2.38 per gallon in 2024, $2.34 per gallon in 2025 and $2.24 per gallon in 2026. In Bloomberg Consensus. It was highlighted in this report that the commodity would reach $2.79 per gallon this year, $2.86 per gallon in 2024, $2.50 per gallon in 2025 and $2.31 per gallon in 2026.
“This quarter we revised the price of gasoline for 2023 from $2.70 per gallon to $2.55 per gallon, which represents a reduction of six percent from our last forecast,” analysts at the BMI in the last report.
“Our current gasoline price forecast reflects the weakness in the broader oil markets experienced between January and May 2023 and our updated view of oil prices. We now expect Brent prices to average $85 per barrel in 2023, below our initial forecast of $95 per barrel,” the analysts added.
“At the same time, we note wider than initially expected crack spreads that are moderating the decline in gasoline prices. Ultimately, however, the impact of oil price weakness outweighs the larger crack spreads, leading to a downward revision in gasoline prices this quarter,” the analysts continued to note.
In another report sent to Rigzone in March, Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research highlighted that gasoline prices had been broadly trading in the first two months of 2023, “oscillating between $2.24 per gallon and $2.70 per gallon.”
“Gasoline prices have broadly tracked crude oil benchmarks between January and February 2023 and traded sideways in a 50-cent range,” analysts said at the time.
The relationship between RBOB and Retail
The oil and gas team at Fitch Solutions has previously explained this to Rigzone the relationship between RBOB and retail prices is useful for directional trends and volatility. Retail prices are a combination of taxes, local blending requirements, profit margin and delivery costs, as well as other factors, and retailers buy supply in varying amounts of contracted volumes both spot and futures, he noted the Fitch Solutions team at Rigzone in 2022. RBOB, being the only widely traded spot and futures contract, provides a good indicator of future price trends and the ability to secure supply at a fixed price, already that the contracts are physical, the team said at the time.
In its latest short-term energy forecast, which was released on May 9, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected US retail gasoline prices to average $3.33 per gallon this year and $3.09 per gallon next year. In its previous STEO, which was released on April 11, the EIA saw the retail price of regular gasoline averaging $3.42 per gallon in 2023 and $3.18 per gallon in 2024.
What do you pay for a gallon of gas?
According to the EIA’s latest fuel update, which was released May 8 and pegged the price of regular gasoline at $3.42 a gallon in March, 50 percent of that total went allocated to crude oil costs, 24 percent went to refining costs, 15 percent went to refining costs. for taxes, and 11 percent went to distribution and marketing costs.
An independent EIA fuel update released on December 27which set the price of regular gasoline at $3.69 a gallon last November, noted that 55 percent of that total went to crude oil costs, 18 percent went to distribution costs, and marketing, 14 percent went to taxes and 13 percent went to refining costs. .
As of May 15, the average price of US regular gasoline is $3.535 per gallon, according to the AAA gas price website. Yesterday’s average was $3.534 per gallon, last week’s average was $3.537 per gallon, last month’s average was $3.668 per gallon, and last year’s average was $4.470 per gallon , the AAA site showed.
To contact the author, please email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
