In a new report sent to Rigzone on April 28, analysts at Standard Chartered said the latest weekly data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) was “very bullish” on the US oil data bullish index from the company, which they said rose 47.7 weeks on the week. week at 46.0.
“Crude inventories fell below their five-year average for the first time this year, falling 8.54 million barrels from the average,” the analysts said in the report.
“Implied demand for gasoline rose by 992,000 bpd week-over-week to a 15-month high of 9.511 million bpd, increasing month-to-date to 218,000 bpd (2.5%) ” the analysts added.
“The streak of weeks without bearish data is seven, a streak we believe is not fully reflected in prices,” the analysts continued to note in the report.
In a separate report sent to Rigzone on April 21, analysts at Standard Chartered noted that the latest EIA data at the time had not helped “to shake the market out of its malaise”.
“Our bullish index on US oil data remained neutral, falling 0.9 week-on-week to -1.7,” analysts said in that report.
“The crude elements of the data were strong, with seasonally flat overall and Cushing, while April product inventory and year-on-year demand numbers disappointed,” analysts added in the report.
“Although it has been six weeks since the last bearish reading, a series of stronger data will likely be needed for Brent to test its 200-day moving average of $88.50 per barrel,” they continued.
In another Standard Chartered report sent to Rigzone on April 14, analysts at the company noted that the EIA’s latest weekly release at the time was again neutral, according to Standard’s US oil data Chartered.
“While crude oil inventories fell 6.02 million barrels compared to the five-year average, this was offset by a 7.28 million barrel build in product inventories led by minor product categories ,” analysts said in that report.
“Gasoline remains the main source of product market tightness, with inventories remaining well below the five-year range, particularly on the East Coast. Demand indications were poor, with week-over-week declines in all categories except in other oils, only gasoline has started April with an increase in year-on-year demand,” the analysts added.
“Despite the week-on-week drop, the year-on-year drop in demand for distillates is lower than in the previous five months. While bearish data releases have outnumbered bullish ones by more than two to one over the past year, the current five-week run without a bearish reading is the longest in 11 months,” the analysts continued.
According to Standard Chartered’s latest report, the company has recorded nine neutral readings, 13 bullish readings and 30 bear readings in the past year. The readings with the lowest joint occurrence over the past year have been “very bullish”, “bullish”, “slightly bullish” and “slightly bearish”, which were recorded three times, the report shows. According to Standard Chartered’s latest report, the most frequent reading over the past year has been “bearish”.
In a separate report sent to Rigzone on April 25, Standard Chartered projected the price of WTI crude oil to average $88 per barrel in 2023, $95 per barrel in 2024 and $106 per barrel in 2025. This report predicted that WTI would reach $88 per barrel in 2023. $85 per barrel in the third quarter of 2023, $91 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2023, $89 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $91 per barrel in the second quarter of 2024 and $95 per barrel in the third quarter of 2024.
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which was released on April 11, the EIA projected the WTI spot price to average $79.24 per barrel in 2023 and 75 .21 dollars per barrel in 2024. The EIA predicted the commodity would average $81 per barrel. barrel in the third quarter of 2023, $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $79 per barrel in the first quarter of 2024, $76 per barrel in the second quarter of 2024 and $74 per barrel in the third quarter of the year coming .
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