One importer predicts some new cars could jump from $20,000 to $35,000 in the next three years as subsidies are eliminated on some hybrids and most small gas cars.
There will be changes, in July, to try to reverse the drain the clean car rebate is having on government coffers as it hits targets four years ahead of schedule. There was an “urgent need to review the financial sustainability of the scheme”, government papers said in February.
In March, when Toyota declared the rebate scheme a failure, it also predicted the price of traditional hybrids and many gas-efficient vehicles would rise.
Existing rebates of more than $3,000 on the Suzuki Swift, Hyundai Kona and Kia Niro hybrids are reduced, and Toyota’s Rav 4 loses its $2,400 rebate.
The Toyota Corolla Hybrid discount is almost cut in half to $1,840.
But a Tesla at the top end of the scheme would still get $7,000 off, down from $8,600 previously.
The Suzuki range used to be considered the lowest emission in the country; now its main importer, Tom Peck, will be without a single model that can benefit from a discount.
“The choice will be reduced, there’s no question” if customers wanted a discount, Peck said.
“People who are planning to go and buy a new car in the $20,000 to $30,000 range are certainly going to be hit hard, because you’re not going to buy any type of new vehicle that’s an EV or a PHEV. [plug-in hybrid] in this price range plus.”
For new small petrol cars, $1,000 to $2,000 off the Suzuki Swift, Toyota Yaris, Honda Jazz and Kia Stonic.
Others – indeed 12 of the 20 most popular petrol brands – will attract emissions fees for the first time, or rates will rise to $2,700.
Used cars, too
The same fate awaits 10 of the first 20 used cars.
The government said the changes reduced the focus on more fuel-efficient vehicles earlier than planned, adjusting what was eligible to promote the take-up of electric vehicles.
“It seems a little backwards to take what was the biggest change in the market, hybrids, to take them out of the system,” Peck said.
Rising tariffs and falling rebates on both the clean car rebate scheme and the related clean car standard that applies to importers were combining badly for buyers, he said. and quickly, he said.
“Right now our entry price is 20 grand. Our entry price three years from now is likely to be in the mid-30s.”
Toyota NZ chief executive Neeraj Lala was concerned the changes would put cleaner cars out of many people’s price range.
“We have been in crisis for a long time in terms of the supply of low-emission cars,” Lala said. Morning report.
“We have backorders that run into the tens of thousands,” he said.
“There are a large number of customers who have committed to buying a low-emissions car, and this change will affect their ability to potentially buy a low-emissions product.”
Subsidy and tariff changes would hit low-emission petrol cars, which were making a bigger impact on decarbonisation in the short term, and hurt sectors that require utes and vans for which there was not yet a low-emission alternative , he said.
Another major player, who would not be named, agreed with that forecast, adding that the changes were a “huge disservice” to struggling New Zealanders, who would end up paying when the rate for a used Mitsubishi Outlander increased from $1,000 to $1,900 and reduced any. profit margin on the vehicle if the dealer tried to keep the price low.
Like many dealers, major importer GVI has used cars on the road from Japan, and the speed of the “rate of payment” changes has stopped them all.
“We’re very focused on low-emission vehicles,” said GVI CEO Hayden Johnston.
“Many of these will now become neutral or a very reduced discount.
“Potentially we will have to drastically change the profile of the vehicles we carry.”
For example, the third most popular used car, the Mazda Six or Axela petrol, will be charged a new fee of $776, up from scratch.
The discount on the Axela Hybrid will drop by $500, while the discount on the used Toyota Aqua will be reduced by $400.
Motor Industry Association chief executive Aimee Wiley said some shoppers who had pre-ordered could be caught out.
“They’re going to have an expectation around the value of the transaction,” Wiley said.
“If that no longer attracts a discount or attracts a fee, the total value of the transaction may change.”
A dealer told RNZ they would carry this and not charge the customer.
All 10 industry participants RNZ spoke to mentioned the fact that thousands of Teslas had won discounts and would continue to do so.
“We don’t need more Teslas. The Teslas have caused this explosion,” Johnston said.
But the Motor Industry Association is happy for the plan’s cap to remain at $80,000, which includes Teslas, as it argued to the government that a lower cap could completely exclude some models, such as the new LDV electric ute .
VIA Industry chief executive David Vinsen said the industry warned the government years ago that the clean car rebate scheme would never be cost neutral.
Then, in recent weeks, they had asked in talks with officials for less rush so dealers could modify the cars they ordered on time.
“They presented a number of options for the minister and cabinet to consider,” Vinsen said.
“There were none of the options that we could endorse or support, but what we did was we recommended that they use the worst.”
All-electric cars and plug-in hybrids fare comparatively better from the changes, although some have their sales cut a bit.
The discount for some goes up, but Tom Peck said there wasn’t much to choose from as EVs were mainly made for major markets, not New Zealand.