Car loans have been growing in Tatarstan since the beginning of the year, but their pace remains behind the growth of mortgages and consumer loans
Over the last year, the car loan market has adapted to the new economic reality. Last month, 3,068 loans were issued in Tatarstan, 11.8% more than in February. At the height of the crisis, in March 2022, car loans in the republic collapsed almost 5 times; only 625 car loans were issued then. Today, the republic ranks fourth among Russian regions in terms of car loans issued, behind only Moscow, Moscow Oblast and St. Petersburg. How the sanctions have changed the market and the amounts that the citizens of Tatarstan are ready to take on today, in the review of the analytical service Realnoe Vremya.
Despite the shortage of popular car brands in the Russian market, the number of car loans (for new cars and used cars), according to the National Bureau of Credit Records (NBKI), increased by 18% in March 2023 up to 62,200. units (in February 2023 — 52.7 thousand).
At the same time, compared to March 2022, the number of car loans increased by 295.6%, then only 15.7 thousand car loans were issued. This was the result of the first shock reaction of the retail lending market to the pressure of sanctions, say NBKI experts.
The largest number of car loans in the regions of the Russian Federation in March 2023 were issued in Moscow (4.1 thousand), Moscow Oblast (3.57 thousand), St. Petersburg (3.21 thousand), Republic of Tatarstan (3.07 thousand), and Krasnodar Krai (2.81 thousand).
At the same time, in March 2023, compared to the previous month, the issuance of car loans increased in almost all regions of the country. But the highest growth was recorded in the province of Vologda (+32.2%) and Saratov (+31.0%), Moscow (+28.4%), as well as in Krasnodar Krai (+23.1%) ) and Tyumen Province (+22.4%).
Tatarstan is average in this regard: car lending in the republic has grown by only 11.8%. But compared to March 2022, the growth is significant: almost five times (only 625 car loans were issued then).
“After a bit of a lull at the end of last year, at the beginning of 2023, the car loan market intensified and in March reached the level of the beginning of 2022,” says Aleksey Volkov, director of NBKI marketing. in the issuance of car loans is due to the resumption at the beginning of the year of the state preferential car loan program, as well as an increase in sales of used cars on credit At the same time, car loans they are still primarily provided to borrowers with good credit.”
However, if we compare March with February 2023, we can see a decrease in new car loan sales by 9%, due to the end of the state loan program: “Most changes affected the brand Lada and China’s cars. manufacturers, where the credit share decreased by an average of 15%,” he said.
At the same time, Natalia Kasanova observes a positive dynamic in the used car loan market.
According to the statistics of KAN AVTO group for 2023, the smallest amounts of loans fall on cars of the Lada brand: 500-600 thousand rubles. People began to ask for more money for used cars compared to last year: 800-900 thousand rubles. For Chinese manufacturers, these figures amount to 1.3-1.5 million rubles.
Car loans will grow in 2023 if manufacturers maintain preferential conditions, and there will be no shortage of warehouses, the expert predicts.
“From January to March 2023, the number of used cars bought with a car loan in TTS increased by 0.44%, but the share of credit sales for new cars is still higher than for used cars, notes the press service of TransTekhServis Group. . Car loans remain a popular payment format for almost 50% of transactions. Moreover, according to the current trend, the average value of the loan amount d ‘car is growing.
Rosbank also recorded an increase in car loans: “Rosbank’s sales are at a high level thanks to joint programs with car manufacturers and the current state program,” said Aleksey Bessonov, head of the Policy Department of Products of the Retail Car Loans Department of Rosbank Avto. .
The average amount of a car loan at Rosbank is 1.1 million rubles. The share of loans for used cars is growing, approaching new cars.
Car loans in 2022 turned out to be the most affected segment of retail loans, emphasizes the representative of Frank RG, Stanislav Sukhov. A “perfect storm” has developed in the market: the stoppage of production and supply of cars and an unprecedented step by the Central Bank with the increase of the reference rate to 20%.
Frank RG’s baseline forecast includes an increase in car loans by 2023 of 41% in monetary terms and 24% in the number of loans issued. According to Frank RG analysts, the Russian economy is adapting to the new reality, the Central Bank is gradually easing policy, domestic car production is striving to the expected level, new brands are entering the market and s are developing preferential loan programs. resumed In this case, it is realistic to reach the figure of 715,000 car loans issued during the year (compared to 579,000 in 2022). However, the company also has crash and soft forecast options.
Sergey Udalov, the executive director of the analytical agency Autostat, notes that the share of car loans in new car sales in the first quarter of 2023 has already reached 45.7% (a year ago it was 36%). In used car sales, the share of loans increased to 7.2% (a year ago it was 5.3%). However, “younger” cars with more mileage (under 10 years old) have a higher percentage of loans: 21.9% (was 14.9%). This suggests that banks are actively working with age-related machines and are not afraid to take them as collateral.
In comparison, the volume of mortgage issuance in 2022 increased by 2 trillion rubles, the volume of consumer loans increased by 7 billion rubles. As of April 1, 2023, the annual growth rate for the auto loan segment was just 0.1%, while for consumer loans it was 5.1%, for mortgages , 15.5%.
“These statistics are mainly related to the state of the Russian car market, which popular Western brands left last year due to sanctions,” explains Osadchy. “Of course, they were partially replaced by Chinese Havals, Cheri and Geely. However, Chinese Cars are now more expensive than comparable cars from Western automakers before last year, which does not cause enthusiasm among the Russians.” In addition, parallel imports cause a significant increase in the cost of both imported cars and spare parts. The state’s preferential car loan program is not comparable in scale to the state’s mortgage stimulus measures. much slower,” adds the analyst.
Ksenia Yakushkina, director of bank ratings at Expert RA, expects the growth of the car loan portfolio to recover to 5% by the end of 2023 after the negative dynamics of the previous year: “The segment will revive with an increase in the number of cars produced by Russian manufacturers, an increase in the volume of deliveries of cars by Chinese manufacturers, as well as the establishment of parallel imports,” predicts Yakushkina.
Julia Garaeva
Tatarstan
