US Census data confirms what we suspected: New York City’s car population exploded over the past decade, even more than the suburbs.
From 2012 to 2021, the latest year for which data is available, the number of passenger vehicles owned by residents of the five boroughs increased by 223,500, increasing the number of cars in the city from 1,853,000 to 2,077,000 . This represents an increase of 12.1%.
During the same period, the seven non-urban “MTA counties” — Nassau and Suffolk on Long Island and, north of the city, Westchester, Rockland, Putnam, Dutchess and Orange counties — added 228,700 vehicles. The numerical increase, slightly greater than that of the city, was much smaller in percentage terms, just 7.5 percent.
Worse still, human population growth in the city during the period was 1.4 percent, while population growth in the aforementioned suburbs was 3.3 percent.
Census data also reveals that the increase in the purchase and ownership of automobiles by city residents predated the pandemic that began in early 2020. The average annual increase in vehicles registered in the New York City from 2019 to 2021, just under 30,000, wasn’t a big departure. of the average annual gain of 23,500 from 2012 to 2019. Instead, the outskirts experienced a boom in car ownership in 2020 and 2021, with annual increases averaging 71,500 owned vehicles compared to just 12,200 per year in the previous seven-year period. (Some of the bump was probably from the migration of city residents fleeing Covid who took cars with them and/or bought more.)
New York City’s rise in car ownership wasn’t limited to one or two boroughs, as the chart above demonstrates. From 2012 to 2021, the number of registered vehicles grew by 52,000 in the Bronx, 59,000 in Queens, and 66,000 in Brooklyn (interestingly, the largest among the state’s 62 counties). Increases in Manhattan and Staten Island were 23,000 each.
On a percentage basis, the number of registered vehicles in the Bronx grew by 22 percent, the steepest increase by far among the dozen upstate counties. Manhattan, Brooklyn and exurban Dutchess County were next, with 13 percent more vehicles in 2021 than in 2012, according to census data.
New York’s car-free majority is falling
If these trends continue, New York won’t be a majority car-free city for much longer. The share of city households reporting zero motor vehicles in 2021, 53.9%, was down from 56.5% in 2012. Three boroughs (Bronx, Brooklyn and Manhattan) are still mostly car-free, but the proportion of households without cars decreased by two to three percentage points in each municipality.
The city gained 171,100 net households over the nine years, according to census data. Surprisingly, less than a tenth of this increase occurred in households without a car. Even households with three or more vehicles, a rarity in the city, grew more. Manhattan, despite losing 9,100 households, now has 650 more households with three or more vehicles than in 2012, but 28,000 fewer without cars.
Eagle-eyed readers may be wondering if the census numbers are compromised by the spread of out-of-state plate contagion. I suspect not. Census data is drawn from anonymous surveys rather than DMV records, suggesting that vehicle ownership is accurately reported even if records are falsified.
What’s behind the car boom?
These disturbing trends bring to mind the biblical parable of the seven fat years. In New York City, the period from 2012 to 2019 was one of prosperity, at least as measured by traditional indicators. Still, except for the introduction of Citi Bike and some building of the city’s bike network, living here without a car just got harder, not easier.
Let’s count the ways: bus rapid transit never flew. The 7-line extension and the new Second Avenue subway together added only a couple of miles of track. Only two of the city’s 25 subway lines were equipped with modern digital signals that allowed for greater train frequency. The City Council’s indifference hindered the full implementation of Fair Fares, the innovative program to cut fares in half for low-income families. Transit advocates fought like hell, but were too often forced into backroom campaigns to reverse service cuts from the aftermath of the 2009-2010 financial crisis and hold the line on fares.
Equally important, nothing was done to make cars more expensive to own and drive. Then-Mayor Bill de Blasio repeatedly mocked congestion pricing, and then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo ignored it until his abrupt conversion in August 2017 — wasting time that could have been used to navigate the nonsensical environmental overhaul. The gas price crater from late 2014 became an incentive to buy a first (or second or third) car.
Likewise, curbside pricing parking reform never got a point, further encouraging New Yorkers to make the transition from vehicle ownership. De Blasio handed out parking signs to tens of thousands of teachers. Uber’s rise didn’t stem the tide; in fact, the ranks of drivers of rental vehicles in the city more than doubled from 47,000 in 2013 to 103,000 in 2013, probably representing a good percentage of the total increase of 223,500 vehicles registered in five districts during the period of seven years. Meanwhile, promises to dedicate new revenue from Uber surcharges and taxi rides in Manhattan to improving traffic outside the borough have not been fulfilled.
What to do?
No silver bullet can reverse the rising tide of car ownership. But antidotes abound: establishing congestion pricing, introducing curbside pricing, vastly expanding Citi Bike, finding funding for sustainable new operations for NYC Transit, and undoing MTA capital program waste are essential and possible.
So are allied policies, such as Governor Hochul’s improved housing pact area and a host of policies that foster opportunity and improve equality, from higher wages to higher taxes on extreme wealth
None of this is hopeless. But the 2017-2019 window in which “breaking the car culture” seemed within reach is gone and won’t return on its own. By Sweeney Todd: The Work Waits.
