On Wednesday, the Environmental Protection Agency plans to announce strict new tailpipe emission standards designed to effectively force the auto industry to phase out the sale of gas cars. It’s an ambitious — and risky — move by the Biden administration to cement its climate goals by boosting electric vehicle sales while marking the end of the internal combustion engine (ICE) era.
But it won’t be as easy as banning the sale of gasoline cars or forcing companies to sell only vehicles with electric motors. Rather, the new EPA rules would set an emissions cap on the total number of new cars each automaker sells in a year. According to a report by The New York Times. Full details are expected to be released on Wednesday.
The effort to make it happen will be absolutely massive. Automakers are already on the path to more electric vehicle sales, but plug-in vehicles still represent only a fraction of the overall US auto market. Getting them from where they are today, at about 7 percent of new auto sales, to where the Biden administration wants them, at about 68 percent of all auto sales, will be different from anything that has been attempted in the 150 year history of the automotive industry.
The effort to make it happen would have to be absolutely massive
Take for example last January: Electric vehicles accounted for 7.83 percent of new vehicle sales in the United States, with 66,416 battery electric vehicles and 14,143 plug-in hybrid vehicles sold. That same month also saw 950,000 new ICE light vehicles sold, as well as approximately 3 million used ICE vehicles. The EPA under President Biden is basically trying to turn those numbers around.
None of this should come as a surprise to policymakers or automakers, according to Chris Harto, senior energy and transportation policy analyst at Consumer Reports. The EPA has indicated that these new standards will come out this spring for some time and are roughly in line with Biden’s climate goals. Right after taking office, the president signed an executive order outlining his vision for half of all new car sales to be zero-emissions by 2030.
As for how chaotic that change will be, a lot will depend on how the auto industry responds, Harto said. “Technology transitions tend to go haywire when companies don’t respond effectively to rapid changes in consumer demand,” he said in an email. “Automakers that respond more nimbly to changes in consumer demand will be more successful, and those that don’t can quickly find themselves behind.”
And, of course, we have California to thank for this new course of action. Last year, the California Air Resources Board issued new rules that Governor Gavin Newsom first implemented in 2020 that would require 100 percent of new cars sold in the state to be free of ‘carbon emissions in 2035. California is the largest auto market. in the US and one of the largest in the world, and emissions standards adopted by the state tend to affect the rest of the country.
“Automakers that respond more nimbly to changes in consumer demand will be more successful, and those that don’t can quickly find themselves behind.”
In fact, other states have followed California’s lead in setting their own deadlines for phasing out the sale of gas cars, including Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and Washington.
But inevitably, the federal government would have to take a different tack. President Joe Biden probably doesn’t want to open himself up to too much criticism by issuing an executive order banning the sale of gas cars. Attack ads practically write themselves. And Republicans are already rejecting the president’s push to increase sales of electric vehicles, albeit somewhat inconsistently. Instead, we’re getting “new light-duty vehicle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions standards and criteria for model year 2027 through 2032,” which doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue.
The EPA proposal comes on the heels of new Treasury Department rules on which vehicles are eligible for a $7,500 tax credit passed as part of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. The new rules address pending issues related to with the source of the critical minerals contained. within a battery electric vehicle and are expected to have fewer electric vehicles that qualify for the credit.
Harto said the new rules will help synchronize federal rules with state efforts to restrict the sale of gas-guzzling vehicles, which will be good for businesses and good for consumers. “For at least the next few years, the main bottleneck in EV adoption will be vehicle supply,” he said. “Consumers can’t buy vehicles that automakers don’t build. These standards will help ensure that automakers really offer the kind of vehicles that consumers want.”
Biden probably doesn’t want to open himself up to too much criticism by issuing an executive order banning the sale of gas cars.
The auto industry is already preparing for the big news. On April 6, the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which represents virtually every major auto company, sent a memo to its members explaining what it knows about the upcoming EPA rules.
The new rules “will result in significantly stricter greenhouse gas emissions standards and criteria than ever before,” the Alliance says, while touting all the money car companies claim to have spent or committed to spend (approximately $1.2 trillion in total). in the EV transition.
The car industry is proud of this figure; he talks about it a lot in his PR communications. And it sure is a big number! But automakers aren’t exactly buying into the administration’s push to force a faster transition to electric vehicles. Private interests are rarely enthusiastic about new regulations. Instead, they warn of a “challenging” future as the administration’s rules take effect.
“This requires a massive 100-year change in the American industrial base and the way Americans drive,” the Alliance note concludes. “A clear assessment of market readiness is required. The answer on the viability of the rules is: it depends.”
Of course, the EPA has more concerns than whether the auto industry believes its new rules will be feasible. Transport is a major source of carbon emissions, and much of this is the result of tailpipe pollution. The climate crisis doesn’t care if the auto market is ready or not. The future is being written right now, and for ICE vehicles, their days are numbered.
