WASHINGTON — The Biden administration is planning some of the world’s strictest auto pollution limits, designed to ensure that all-electric cars account for up to 67 percent of new passenger vehicles sold in the country by 2032, according to two people known with the subject
That would represent a quantum leap for the U.S., where just 5.8 percent of vehicles sold last year were all-electric, and surpass President Biden’s previous ambitions for all-electric cars to account for half of those sold in the country in 2030.
It would be the federal government’s most aggressive climate regulation and would push the United States to the forefront of the global effort to reduce greenhouse gases generated by cars, one of the main drivers of climate change. The European Union has already enacted vehicle emissions rules that are expected to phase out the sale of new gasoline vehicles by 2035. Canada and the United Kingdom have proposed rules similar to the European model.
At the same time, the proposed regulation would pose a significant challenge to car manufacturers. Almost every major auto company has already invested heavily in electric vehicles, but few have committed to the levels envisioned by the Biden administration. And many have faced supply chain issues that have slowed production. Even manufacturers that are excited about electric models aren’t sure whether consumers will buy enough of them to make up the majority of new car sales in a decade.
The EPA’s action will likely encourage climate activists, who are angered by the Biden administration’s recent decision to approve a huge oil drilling project on federal land in Alaska. Some within the administration argue that accelerating the transition to renewable energy, with most Americans driving electric vehicles, would reduce demand for oil drilled in Alaska or elsewhere.
Michael S. Regan, the administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, is expected to announce proposed limits on tailpipe emissions in Detroit on Wednesday. The requirements would aim to ensure that electric cars make up 54 to 60 percent of all new cars sold in the U.S. by 2030, with that number rising to 64 to 67 percent of all new car sales. new cars by 2032, according to people familiar with the details, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the information had not been made public.
Rapidly accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles in the United States would require other significant changes, including building millions of new electric vehicle charging stations, overhauling electric grids to meet the power needs of these chargers, and ensuring the supply of minerals and other materials needed for batteries.
The Biden administration’s environmental agenda
The proposed regulation, which would go through a period of public comment and could be modified by the government before becoming final, is sure to face legal challenges. It could also become an issue in the 2024 presidential campaign, as a future administration could undo or weaken it.
“This is a massive undertaking,” said John Bozzella, president of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which represents major U.S. and foreign automakers. “It’s nothing short of a complete transformation of the automotive industrial base and the automotive market.”
In a statement released Friday night, EPA spokeswoman Maria Michalos did not confirm the new goals, but said the agency was working on new standards as directed by the president to “accelerate the transition toward a future of transport without emissions, protecting people and the planet”.
The new regulations would come on the heels of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which has helped stoke demand for electric vehicles by providing up to $7,500 in tax incentives for car buyers, as well as billions in incentives for battery manufacturing and the processing and mining of critical minerals.
Transportation is the largest source of greenhouse gases generated by the United States, the second largest polluter on the planet behind China. Rapidly phasing out gas-burning cars with electric models would help Mr. Biden meet his pledge to halve the nation’s emissions by 2030 and effectively phase them out by midcentury.
The proposed auto emissions rule is even more demanding than the target set by Mr. Biden in a White House speech in 2021. Speaking on the South Lawn and surrounded by a lineup of electric vehicles, including a Ford F-150 Lightning, a Chevrolet Bolt EV and a Jeep Wrangler, Mr. Biden issued an executive order calling for federal policies to ensure that half of all new cars sold are fully electric by 2030.
What we consider before using anonymous sources. Do the sources know the information? What is your motivation for telling us? Have they proven reliable in the past? Can we corroborate the information? Even with those questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. The reporter and at least one editor know the identity of the source.
“There is a vision of the future that is now starting to happen, a future of the auto industry that is electric: battery electric, plug-in hybrid electric, fuel cell electric,” said Mr. Biden at the time.
But climate policy experts have said the transition to zero-emission vehicles must move faster to avoid planetary disaster. A 2021 report by the International Energy Agency found that nations would need to halt sales of new gasoline-powered cars by 2035 to prevent average global temperatures from rising 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial levels. Beyond that point, scientists say, the effects of catastrophic heat waves, floods, drought, crop failure and species extinction would be much more difficult for humanity to handle. The planet has already warmed an average of about 1.1 degrees Celsius.
While the market has begun the transition to electric vehicles, government action is needed to ensure the electric car revolution is complete, said Drew Kodjak, executive director of the International Council on Clean Transportation, an organization of research “Everybody who’s seen this movie knows that the market is fickle,” Kodjak said. “What if there’s a market crash? What if the battery minerals don’t come out? Without these firm standards that have a clear trajectory over time, none of the players can be sure that’s going to happen.”
The proposed rule would not require electric vehicles to represent a certain number or percentage of sales. Instead, it would require car manufacturers to ensure that the total number of vehicles they sell each year does not exceed a certain emissions limit. That limit would be so strict that it would force automakers to ensure that two-thirds of the vehicles they sold were fully electric by 2032, according to people familiar with the matter.
Experts say the proposed regulation will synchronize the federal action with California’s decision to ban the sale of new gasoline-powered cars after 2035. Even the manufacturers facing the regulations say they would prefer to deal with a set of rules rather than meeting specifications. of California that differ from federal requirements.
But many obstacles remain for a smooth transition to electric vehicles. One of the biggest is the need for millions of charging points for electric vehicles. Experts say it won’t be possible for electric vehicles to move from niche to mainstream without making electric charging stations as ubiquitous as corner gas stations. A 2021 infrastructure law provided $7.5 billion to build a network of about 500,000 charging stations along federal highways, but a January report from S&P Global concluded that millions more were needed.
The transformation could also mean economic dislocation for American auto workers, as electric vehicles require less than half as many workers to build as gas-powered cars.
“We’ve dealt with job losses before through technology, but when you talk about the speed of this, it’s hard to understand that we’re not going to lose jobs,” said Mark DePaoli, leader of United Auto Workers Local 600. a recent interview at union headquarters near the Ford Rouge manufacturing plant in Dearborn, Michigan.
The loss of auto industry jobs could have political consequences for Mr. Biden, who will need voters in industrialized states like Michigan and Ohio if he chooses to run for a second term. While working on the new rule, administration officials have been making weekly phone calls with union leaders to try to reassure them.
Mr Biden, a “car guy” who campaigned as “the most pro-union guy you’ve ever seen”, has repeatedly tried to present the transition as an economic opportunity, stressing that it will create new jobs in an energy economy clean
“We will build a different future with one, one with clean energy and good-paying jobs,” Mr. Biden said in a speech last summer. “We must continue to retain and hire construction professionals and union electricians for jobs in wind, solar, hydrogen, nuclear, creating even more and better jobs.”
Mr. Biden has worked to ensure that only American-made electric vehicles qualified for the tax incentives offered by the Inflation Reduction Act, although the requirement that they be assembled by union workers was removed .