$79.64 per barrel.
That was the average response of 145 oil and gas company executives when asked what they expected the WTI price to be at the end of 2023 as part of the Dallas Fed’s Energy Survey of first quarter of 2023.
The poll’s low forecast was $50 per barrel, while the high forecast was $160 per barrel. The WTI price during the survey’s collection period, which spanned March 15-23, averaged $68.51 per barrel.
In the fourth quarter of 2022, the Dallas Fed Energy Survey, which was the first Dallas Fed energy survey to ask respondents about year-end 2023 prices, the response average of executives from 150 oil and gas companies responded when asked what the price of WTI was. at the end of this year it was $83.63 per barrel. The low forecast in this survey was $65 per barrel, while the high forecast was $160 per barrel.
The three previous surveys throughout 2022 asked respondents what they expected prices to be at the end of 2022.
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which was released on March 2, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected the WTI spot price to average 77.10 dollars per barrel in 2023 and $71.57 per barrel in 2024.
According to the March STEO, the EIA expects the WTI spot price to average $78.05 a barrel in the first quarter of 2023, $78 a barrel in the second quarter, $77 a barrel in the third quarter, $75.35 dollars a barrel in the fourth quarter, $74 a barrel. in the first quarter of next year, $72.34 a barrel in the second quarter of 2024, $70.69 a barrel in the third quarter of 2024 and $69.36 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2024.
The next STEO is scheduled to be published on April 11.
In a report sent to Rigzone on April 4, Standard Chartered analysts forecast WTI to average $88 per barrel in 2023, $95 per barrel in 2024 and $106 per barrel in 2025.
The report showed that analysts expected WTI to average $85 per barrel in the third quarter of 2023, $91 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $89 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $91 per barrel in the second quarter of 2024 and $95 per barrel in the third quarter of 2024.
At the time of writing, the price of WTI stood at $80.85 per barrel. The commodity recorded its lowest close of 2023 so far on March 17 at $66.74 a barrel, before rising to a close above $80 a barrel on April 3. WTI’s highest 2023 close so far was seen on January 26 at $87.47 a barrel.
Stalled growth
Oil and gas sector growth stagnated in the first quarter of 2023, according to oil and gas executives who responded to the Dallas Fed’s latest energy survey.
The business activity index, described as the broadest measure of conditions facing energy companies in the 11th district, was 2.1 in the first quarter, the survey revealed. The Dallas Fed Energy Survey noted that it “fell sharply” from 30.3 in the fourth quarter of 2022.
“The near-zero reading indicates that activity was largely unchanged from the previous quarter, a break from the more than two-year stretch of rising activity,” the survey said.
The survey also highlighted that oil and natural gas production rose at a slower pace compared to the previous quarter, according to executives at exploration and production companies. The oil production index was said to remain positive but fell to 10.5 in the first quarter from 25.8 in the fourth. It was revealed that the natural gas production index had fallen to 7.4 from 29.4.
The survey noted that companies reported rising costs for the ninth consecutive quarter and that the business outlook index turned negative in the first quarter, falling 27 points to -14.1. The overall outlook uncertainty index rose 23 points to 62.6, indicating that companies continued to face heightened uncertainty about their outlook, the survey said, adding that the 68 per hundred of the companies declared greater uncertainty.
The Dallas Fed conducts the Dallas Fed Energy Survey quarterly to obtain a timely assessment of energy activity among oil and gas companies located or headquartered in the Eleventh District, the Dallas Fed notes in the your website.
To contact the author, please send an email andreas.exarcheas@rigzone.com
