Oil prices have soared after several of the world’s biggest oil exporters announced surprise output cuts.
Cuts by Saudi Arabia, Iraq and several Gulf states totaled 1.15 million barrels per day from May through the end of the year.
Following the announcement, the price of Brent crude traded near $85 a barrel, rising nearly 6 percent.
Amid worries from economists that rising oil prices could prolong misery in UK backyards, the RAC said it does not expect petrol prices to rise unless the rise in oil prices is sustained for several days
RAC fuel spokesman Simon Williams said: “While the surprise decision by oil producer group OPEC+ to cut oil production next month has pushed oil prices up to $85 a barrel for the first time since early March, the big question is whether retailers will raise prices at the pump, and if so, how quickly.
“In reality, any sudden increase in the cost of oil should not lead to an increase in the average UK petrol price over a fortnight, unless of course the price of a barrel remains higher for several days.
He added: “It’s a very different story for diesel, which has been very overpriced for weeks due to retailers taking much larger margins than normal because of its lower wholesale cost, so we don’t there is no justification for any upward movement in its price.”
The AA also said any increase in prices at petrol stations would depend on the current rise in oil prices continuing in the coming days.
Luke Bosdet, AA’s spokesman on pump prices, said there were three factors at play with the rise in oil prices: any possible demand from the United States in the coming months, a reduction in fuel consumption by motorists during the summer and the cost of diesel.
Customs Mr. Bosdet The Independent that the industry rule of thumb is that for every $2 change in the value of oil there is a 1p change at the pump, when the £/$ exchange rate is held constant.
“So you’re looking at a 3p-5p rise in the price of a liter of petrol, if the current jump in oil prices holds,” he explained.
In addition, the next two months mark the start of the US auto season and the country is starting to pull loads of gasoline to meet the expected increase in demand.
This is a seasonal trend that always increases the cost of gasoline. But Bosdet said that “if economic conditions mean that the American consumer is not using as much gasoline as usual, that value will fall later in the summer.”
And there is more hope of light relief on the horizon, with the switch from winter to summer driving.
Motorists’ cars are “less thirsty” during the summer because the use of wipers, lights and heaters is less common and the engine oil is not as cold at start-up, Bosdet said.
“If your car regularly gets 40mpg, you can expect that every 1mpg reduction in fuel consumption from better engine efficiency will save you 1p per litre. A 3mpg improvement is very likely for the most drivers,” he said.
Diesel, meanwhile, has long been overpriced, Bosdet said.
“Wholesale petrol was 4p per liter more expensive than diesel on Friday. We expect the pump price of diesel to continue to fall, if the fuel trade does the right thing, he added.
Meanwhile, Mr. Bosdet urged drivers to keep their eyes open for yards to curb price increases.
