Analysts forecast a SAAR of 14.25 m in March as inventory levels continue to slowly improve
SANTA MONICA, Calif., March 29, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — Auto buying experts at Edmunds forecast 3,502,324 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2023, up 5.2% from the first quarter of 2022 but a decrease of 1.8% in comparison. until the fourth quarter of 2022.
“The auto industry’s wild roller coaster of the past few years has finally begun to transition to a smoother, more predictable one as inventory continued to improve in the first quarter,” he said. Jessica Caldwell, CEO of Edmunds Insights. “While the market is nowhere near the heavy business environment that consumers expected before the pandemic, car buyers should be pleased to see that some incentives are emerging after more than a year of drought as inventory levels continue to rise.”
As inventory levels improved, Edmunds data reveals new vehicles sat on dealer lots longer in the first quarter: Average Days to Turn (TDT)1 of new vehicles increased to 34 days in the first quarter of 2023, compared to 24 days in the first quarter of 2022. The average vehicle trade-in age for new car purchases also increased slightly, rising to at 5.9 years in the first quarter of 2023 compared to 5.3 years in the first quarter of 2022 and 6.4 years for the first quarter of 2015 to 2019.
“Consumers planning to buy a car will still need to do their research and prepare to make a move if they find a vehicle they like, but at least they can breathe and not feel so pressured to jump through every piece of inventory . the moment it hits the market,” he said Ivan Drury, Edmunds’ chief information officer. “For current car owners who have been waiting for the market to cool before jumping into a new vehicle, now is the time to start paying close attention to trade-in values, which continue to soften as the ‘new car inventory. things right, you may be able to maximize your trade-in value and get a new car at a bit of a discount.’
To get an accurate picture of a vehicle’s current value, consumers can search for appraisals at sites like Edmonds and track your vehicle’s historical value with this tool about Edmunds.
Looking ahead, Edmunds analysts note that 2023 looks set to offer a gradual return to normalcy for the auto industry, but warn that unfavorable financial conditions could become a major obstacle.
“Consumers face credit uncertainty as skyrocketing interest rates have created barriers to entry for even the most qualified buyers,” Caldwell said. “As more consumers feel left out of the market, we can expect pent-up demand to grow even more.”
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FORECAST OF SALES VOLUME, BY MANUFACTURER
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SALES VOLUME |
Forecast for the first quarter of 2023 |
First quarter 2022 sales |
4Q 2022 sales |
Change compared to the first quarter of 2022 |
Change compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 |
|
GM |
602,813 |
519,924 |
623,503 |
15.9% |
-3.3% |
|
Ford |
468,962 |
432.133 |
483,970 |
8.5% |
-3.1% |
|
Toyota |
464,075 |
516,373 |
536,782 |
-10.1% |
-13.5% |
|
Hyundai/Kia |
378,000 |
323,220 |
390,302 |
16.9% |
-3.2% |
|
stellar |
368,222 |
409,844 |
349,284 |
-10.2% |
5.4% |
|
honda |
277,763 |
266,419 |
255,251 |
4.3% |
8.8% |
|
Nissan |
227,395 |
201.081 |
191,012 |
13.1% |
19.0% |
|
VW/Audi |
118,221 |
101,537 |
120.101 |
16.4% |
-1.6% |
|
industry |
3,502,324 |
3,328,817 |
3,566,892 |
5.2% |
-1.8% |
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MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
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|
Market share |
Forecast for the first quarter of 2023 |
First quarter 2022 sales |
4Q 2022 sales |
Change compared to the first quarter of 2022 |
Change compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 |
|
GM |
17.2% |
15.6% |
17.5% |
10.2% |
-1.5% |
|
Ford |
13.4% |
13.0% |
13.6% |
3.1% |
-1.3% |
|
Toyota |
13.3% |
15.5% |
15.0% |
-14.6% |
-12.0% |
|
Hyundai/Kia |
10.8% |
9.7% |
10.9% |
11.2% |
-1.4% |
|
stellar |
10.5% |
12.3% |
9.8% |
-14.6% |
7.4% |
|
honda |
7.9% |
8.0% |
7.2% |
-0.9% |
10.8% |
|
Nissan |
6.5% |
6.0% |
5.4% |
7.5% |
21.2% |
|
VW/Audi |
3.4% |
3.1% |
3.4% |
10.7% |
0.2% |
About Edmunds
Edmonds guides online car buyers from research to purchase. With in-depth reviews of every new vehicle, buying advice from an in-house team of experts, plus a wealth of consumer and automotive market information, Edmunds helps millions of shoppers each month select, price and buy a car with confidence. Recognized as one of America’s Best Workplaces by Fortune, Great Place to Work and Built In, Edmunds is headquartered in Santa Monica, California. Follow us at Tik Tok, Twitter, Facebook i Instagram.
1 How many days a vehicle sits on a dealer lot before being sold
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SOURCE Edmunds
