Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research revealed its latest Henry Hub price forecasts in a new report sent to Rigzone this week.
The company now expects the commodity to average $3.6 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2023, $3.8 per MMBtu in 2024 and $4.0 per MMBtu in 2024 and 2025, according to the report, which highlighted that the price of the 2022 Henry Hub arrived. at $6.5 per MMBtu and the 2021 Henry Hub price was $3.7 per MMBtu.
The Bloomberg Consensus, which was included in the Fitch Solutions report, projected the commodity to reach $3.6 per MMBtu in 2023, $3.8 per MMBtu in 2024, $4.3 per MMBtu in 2025 and $3.8 per MMBtu in 2026.
“We made a substantial downward revision to our Henry Hub prices this quarter as we now expect [the] Henry Hub first month average annual price to return to historic levels by 2023,” Fitch Solutions analysts said in the report.
“In our view, prices will average $3.6 per MMBtu in 2023, which is a 45 percent decline from last year’s $6.5 per MMBtu. Prices in 2023 are expected to return to 2021 levels as we see risk premia, which widened in the wake of Russia’s war in Ukraine in 2022, normalizing this year,” the analysts added in the report.
“However, we continue to expect first-month Henry Hub prices to remain elevated compared to 2017-2020 as the tightening global LNG market will support growth in US LNG exports, limiting gas supply to the domestic market. This is a key trend we expect to see in the medium term as Henry Hub prices grow as a result of increased US LNG exports,” the analysts continued.
In a separate report sent to Rigzone in September last year, Fitch Solutions projected the Henry Hub price to be $7.0 per MMBtu in 2022, $6.50 per MMBtu in 2023, $6.0 per MMBtu in 2024, $5.70 per MMBtu in 2025 and $5.45. by MMBtu in 2026.
The Bloomberg Consensus included in this report projected the commodity to be valued at $6.50 per MMBtu in 2022, $5.90 per MMBtu in 2023, $4.50 per MMBtu in 2024, $4.10 per MMBtu in 2025 and $4.30 per MMBtu in 2022.
In a separate report sent to Rigzone this week, Standard Chartered forecast the Henry Hub price to be $5.40 per MMBtu in 2023, $4.75 per MMBtu in 2024 and $4.80 per MMBtu in 2025. quarterly figures, the report projected the commodity to reach $5.40 per MMBtu in the second quarter of 2023, $5.0 per MMBtu in the third quarter, $5.20 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter and $4.80 per MMBtu in the first and second quarter of 2024.
At the time of writing, the Henry Hub price is trading at $2.47 per MMBtu. The commodity’s 2023 year-to-date close was seen on January 4 at $4.17 per MMBtu, and its 2023 year-to-date close was seen on February 21 at $2.07 dollars per MMBtu.
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