The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects global liquid fuel production to exceed demand in 2023 and 2024, according to its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
In the STEO, which was released this week, the EIA forecasts total global production to reach 101.47 million barrels per day this year and 103.02 million barrels per day next year. The STEO forecasts total global consumption to reach 100.90 million barrels per day in 2023 and 102.69 million barrels per day in 2024.
Broken down quarterly, the latest STEO forecasts total global production to reach 100.73 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year, 101.28 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 101.92 million barrels in day in the third quarter, 101.93 million barrels per day. per day in the fourth quarter, 102.27 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024, 102.85 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 103.43 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 103.53 million barrels in the day in the fourth quarter.
The latest STEO forecasts total global consumption to be 99.94 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2023, 100.60 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 101.47 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 101 .56 million barrels per day in the quarter. quarter, 102.04 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 102.31 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 103.25 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 103.14 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
The EIA’s March STEO described 2022 total world production and total world consumption as 99.86 million barrels per day and 99.42 million barrels per day, respectively. In its February STEO, which pegged total world production at 99.95 million barrels per day and total world consumption at 99.36 million barrels per day, the EIA projected total world production to reach 101 .10 million barrels per day in 2023 and to 102.61 million barrels per day in 2023. 2024. Total global consumption is forecast to reach 100.47 million barrels per day in 2023 and 102.26 million barrels up to date in 2024 in this STEO.
“Global consumption of liquid fuels in our forecast increases from an average of 99.4 million barrels per day in 2022 to 100.9 million barrels per day in 2023, which is 0.4 million barrels per day more than last month’s forecast,” the EIA said in its report. last STEO
“The higher consumption forecast is mainly due to upward revisions to global economic growth. We expect China to account for approximately half of the growth in global liquid fuel consumption in 2023. China’s forecasted consumption will increase by 0 .7 million bpd by 2023. We forecast consumption in India to grow by 0.2 million bpd and other OECD consumption to grow by 0.5 million bpd on average,” he added the EIA.
“This growth in non-OECD countries is offset by almost no growth in consumption among OECD countries in 2023. OECD consumption remains largely unchanged as the effects of inflation continue to limit the GDP growth and oil demand. We forecast that global liquid fuel consumption will grow by an additional 1.8 million barrels per day by 2024, with non-OECD countries accounting for 1.6 million barrels per day of the growth,” the EIA continued.
The organization went on to note, however, that “significant uncertainty remains around our demand forecast because there is a wide range of possible outcomes for both global economic conditions this year and demand for travel and oil in China after its pivot away from a zero-Covid strategy.”.
In the latest STEO, the EIA said that “global production of liquid fuels averaged about 100 million barrels per day in 2022, and we forecast that it will increase by an average of 1.6 million barrels per day both 2023 as well as 2024″.
“Despite upward revisions to increase our forecast for global liquid fuel consumption, we still expect global oil inventories to rise steadily over the forecast period as global oil production continues to outpace consumption,” the EIA stated in the STEO.
In its latest oil market report, which was published in February, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that global oil demand will increase by two million barrels per day in 2023 to 101, 9 million barrels per day. The IEA noted in the report that the Asia-Pacific region, fueled by a resurgent China, dominates the growth outlook.
On oil supply, the IEA said in the report that it expects global production to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2023, “driven by non-OPEC+.”
“OPEC+ supply is expected to contract with Russia pressured by sanctions,” the IEA said.
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