When I left the Air Force, I went to work for an engineering services company that supported the USAF in weapons development and testing.
The company also worked in other areas where it had operational expertise: electronic warfare and training range instrumentation.
While working for this company I became familiar with the concept of systems engineering.
Systems engineering is a kind of parent, while electrical, mechanical, software, structural, aeronautical, and all other disciplines could be seen as the children of the family.
When designing and building an aircraft, it relies on all of these individual disciplines working together.
And often, if you needed to make a change in one area, you needed to analyze and understand the impact of that change on the system, all the other components.
If you didn’t fully analyze and understand the impact, you were courting disaster.
Our current transportation system relies almost exclusively on energy produced from petroleum (gasoline, diesel and lubricants) and natural gas.
Our electricity generation system consists mainly of hydroelectric, coal, natural gas, nuclear and “green” (solar, wind and biofuel) sources.
However, we will make a major shift in energy production and use to solve a problem that I don’t think we fully understand or that is beyond our ability to solve, no matter what we do. (I strongly believe in the latter.)
Our current mantra is simply to repeat “EV” (electric vehicle) over and over and over. And many of us are buying into a solution that I don’t think anyone has fully analyzed.
In academia, a study appears to have concluded that electric vehicles will fail to meet net zero climate goals.
As Allysia Finley reported in the Wall Street Journal, there is a Climate and Community Project organization at the University of California, Davis. They have studied the issues and concluded that electric vehicles alone will not bring about the necessary reductions.
Their conclusion is that the total number of electric vehicles will have to be reduced because of the negative problems associated with the production of electric vehicles itself.
The first reason is batteries that require lithium extraction or ocean water extraction. The projected amount of lithium needed for electric vehicles in the United States alone is three times the current total world production.
As demand increases worldwide, so will the cost of this critical metal.
The extraction of lithium itself requires large amounts of energy and water and results in increased production of carbon dioxide. Mining can cause irreversible damage to the environment and will undoubtedly negatively affect poor countries and indigenous peoples.
And I haven’t seen anyone comprehensively address the issues of battery disposal and/or recycling. Heck, we can’t even recycle the big wind turbine blades; they must be buried.
Lithium is highly reactive and flammable and must be stored in a vacuum, inert atmosphere, or inert liquid.
The production of electric vehicles and the operation of large numbers of them will require large amounts of electricity. Green energy may not be up to the task of creating this amount of “always available” energy.
The Center for the American Experiment reported that it takes 9 tons of copper to produce a wind turbine (probably the largest ones, some of which have recently collapsed or fallen).
The project concluded that we need to “densify” low-density suburbs so that fewer vehicles are required. We need to create livable neighborhoods with a reduced need for vehicles, and promote walking, cycling and public transport, along with creating more bike lanes.
Coming to a theater near you? I don’t see that happening.
You can foresee that the unintended consequences of the relentless pursuit of more electric vehicles may cause us to reach a point where electric production cannot meet demand and there are not enough internal combustion engine vehicles to transport us and our goods?
Sorry kids, we can’t go to grandma’s house for Christmas this year. We have used up our government-supplied electric vehicle transport electricity allotment and the Jones family is receiving it until the end of the month.
It could happen. We have a lot of knowledge; what is missing is wisdom, especially in our politicians.
That’s how I see it.
