Manual cars reached an all-time low market share in 2021, consisting of less than 1% of new car sales, according to JD Power figures. From its floor of 0.9%, there has been a rebound. Sales increased in 2022 to 1.2% and now in 2023 manual cars represent 1.7% of the new car market. Now, the The Wall Street Journal is report that it’s because more people, especially young people, are starting to intentionally look for manual-equipped cars, rather than buying them just because they’re the cheapest or most fuel-efficient option available. Some evidence definitely points to this.
According to JD Power, automakers in 2019 offered 69 models in the U.S. with manual transmissions. Today it’s only 43. Despite this, enthusiasts are putting their money where their mouth is on the eve of electrification. Stick-shift automakers have jumped on board to offer manuals, from Cadillac to Acura to Mazda. In Cadillac’s case, the take rate for the stick-shift versions of the CT4-V and CT5-V Blackwing is higher than expected. talking with WSJ, Acura says one in four new Integras is specified with a clutch pedal. In fact, a whopping 70% of early car bookings were held. Similarly, Mazda’s Miata is no longer available with an automatic transmission.
This is despite some popular sports cars ditching the H pattern in the name of performance. The Corvette, for example, is now automatic/DCT only. Similarly, the next-generation Porsche Cayman will likely be all-electric, ditching an internal combustion engine entirely in the name of performance and environmental awareness.
Resistance to performance for the sake of performance and electrification is growing, however, and not necessarily in a reactionary anti-environmental way. This could be a boon for the future of manual transmission. Mazda and Porsche have both said that their flagship sports cars, the Miata and 911 respectively, will always be powered by internal combustion, and that likely means manuals. Future generations of ICE sports cars could also return to a stick shift not only to save money, but also to take advantage of what enthusiasts love about ICE enthusiast cars.
Evidence suggests that stick shift fans aren’t dying out either. Half of buyers of manual Acura Integras were between the ages of 18 and 46. Likewise, a quarter of new MX-5 buyers are between 18 and 35 years old.
In short, there are small but solid signs that the mast is not dead yet. Even with fewer offers, sales increase, and people who like manuals tend to love them. If we’re lucky, they’ll drive considerable demand for the foreseeable future, and automakers will want to cater to their needs.
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