The US Energy Information Administration expects global consumption of liquid fuels to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2023 and by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024, according to its latest short-term energy outlook ( STEO).
Total world consumption will reach 100.47 million barrels per day this year and 102.26 million barrels per day in 2024, according to STEO’s February projections. The STEO showed that demand is expected to reach 99.65 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year, 100.05 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 100.99 million barrels per day in third quarter and 101.19 million barrels per day in the third quarter. fourth quarter
Consumption will be 101.56 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024, 101.77 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2024 and 102.85 million barrels per day in both the third and fourth quarters of next year, according to the STEO. , which showed total demand at 99.36 million barrels per day in 2022.
“Global liquid fuel consumption is forecast to increase from an average of 99.4 million barrels per day in 2022 to 102.3 million barrels per day in 2024, driven primarily by growth in China and other non-member countries of the OECD,” noted the February STEO.
“However, significant uncertainty around our demand forecast remains based on possible outcomes for evolving global economic conditions and China’s pivot away from a zero-Covid strategy,” he said. add STEO.
“We forecast that the reversal of restrictions will contribute to China’s oil demand increasing by 0.7 million barrels per day in 2023 and by 0.4 million barrels per day in 2024. We expect oil demand from the OECD to remain largely flat over the forecast period as inflation Economic pressures continue to constrain GDP and oil demand growth and as the oil intensity of OECD economies declines” , the STEO continued.
January STEO, IEA
In its previous STEO, which was released in January, the EIA forecast demand would be 100.48 million barrels per day in 2023 and 102.20 million barrels per day in 2024.
This STEO showed that demand was expected to reach 100.56 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year, 100.34 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 100.53 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 100.47 million barrels per day in the third quarter. fourth quarter In the January STEO, consumption was forecast to reach 102.18 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024, 101.93 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2024, 102.41 million barrels per day in third quarter of 2024 and 102.29 million barrels per day. per day during the fourth quarter of 2024.
According to the latest International Energy Agency (IEA) oil market report, which was released in January, global oil demand will increase by 1.9 million barrels per day by 2023.
“This year oil demand could rise by 1.9 million bpd to a record high of 101.7 million bpd, balancing as Russian supply slows under full impact of the sanctions,” the IEA said in the report.
“China will drive almost half of this growth in global demand although the shape and speed of its reopening remain uncertain,” the IEA added in the report.
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