The drop in Russian fossil fuel exports following the invasion of Ukraine this year will transform the global energy landscape for decades and may help accelerate a transition to green energy, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday ( IEA).
The IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook acknowledges the economic impact of reduced supplies of Russian oil, natural gas and coal, but maintains an optimal environmental scenario in which there is no need to invest in new fossil fuel projects.
The IEA report said the global energy crisis is causing deep and lasting changes that could accelerate the transition to a more sustainable and secure energy system.
“Energy markets and policies have changed as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, not just for now, but for decades to come,” the IEA executive director said. Fatih Birol.
“The world of energy is changing dramatically before our eyes. Government responses around the world promise to make this a historic and definitive turning point towards a cleaner, more affordable and safer energy system.” , added Birol.
Short-term gaps created by Russia’s shrinking fossil fuel supply will have to be filled from elsewhere.
The strongest candidates are projects with “short lead times” that quickly bring oil and gas supplies to market without locking in dependency.
Global investment in clean energy will rise to more than $2 trillion annually by 2030, more than half of current levels, while “international energy markets undergo a profound reorientation in the 2020s as countries ‘adjust to the Russia-Europe (energy) breakup. ), the IEA said.
Last year, the IEA surprised the energy industry by saying lower demand and an increase in low-emission fuels made new oil and gas fields unnecessary beyond 2021 in its zero-emissions scenario clean, more respectful of the climate.
PEAKS
On Russia, the IEA said the country, which is the world’s largest exporter of fossil fuels, will never regain the share of the global energy supply mix it had before the invasion of Ukraine.
Russia’s supply of internationally traded energy will fall to 13% in 2030 from 20% in 2021, the IEA projects.
The IEA also said global demand for each type of fossil fuel has been set at a peak or plateau for the first time in the agency’s modeling history.
Global fossil fuel emissions leading to climate change will peak in 2025 as coal use falls in coming years, natural gas demand expands in 2030, and oil demand declines in the middle of the next decade before falling.
“One effect of Russia’s actions is that the era of rapid growth in demand for natural gas is coming to an end,” the IEA said, noting an increase in global gas demand from less than 5% between last year and 2030.
