With the potential for a renewed Russian advance, significant questions remain about the outlook for Russian activity within the maritime domain, Dryad Global noted in its latest Maritime Security Threat Alert (MSTA), which was released on Monday in the afternoon.
“While at this stage it remains highly unlikely that commercial activities in the wider Black Sea will face disruption, the attacks in January highlighted the continued vulnerability of Ukrainian ports and the ships in them.” , the MSTA stated.
“Russia maintains the capability and intent to conduct operations targeting Ukraine’s port infrastructure, particularly those ports beyond the UN-negotiated grain agreement,” the MSTA added.
In its previous MSTA, which was released on January 30, Dryad stated that, during the last reporting period, Ukraine saw two ships hit while in the port of Kherson, “confirming the continued existence of an elevated threat to ships beyond the ports listed in the port of Kherson.” Cereals Agreement negotiated by the UN”.
“While the precise nature of the attack remains to be confirmed, it is highly likely that the ships were hit as a result of an indirect attack in the port area,” MSTA said.
“It remains very likely that these attacks will continue to target Ukrainian ports, which do not fall within the parameters of the UN-negotiated grain agreement,” the former MSTA added.
In a separate MSTA issued on January 16, Dryad said the Black Sea remained an area of deep commercial and geopolitical sensitivity “with the UN-sponsored grain deal at the heart of this”.
“Russian naval assets have largely stayed out of the central conflict in recent months, but it remains to be seen how far this continues,” MSTA noted.
The Black Sea Grains Agreement allows Ukraine’s exports of grain, other food products and fertilizers, including ammonia, to resume via a secure maritime humanitarian corridor from three key Ukrainian ports: Chornomorsk , Odesa and Yuzhny/Pivdennyi, in the rest of the world. , highlights the UN site.
On February 24, 2022, Oil topped $100 a barrel for the first time in years as Russian forces escalated a conflict with Ukraine. Almost a year later, Brent crude is trading at $82.62 a barrel, down from a close of $88.19 a barrel on January 23.
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